Posted on

Six Days Left: Trump Has a Lot of Outs

When poker players are drawing to a straight or a flush, they will often talk about having a certain number of “outs” — i.e. how many cards are left in the deck that can make their hand, allowing them to win the pot.

Donald Trump doesn’t have a winning hand yet, but he has a lot of outs.

Last Thursday night, we wrote at Townhall about Donald Trump’s easier-than-you-think path to 270 electoral votes. We explained that Trump could get to 265 by winning Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. At the time, this still seemed like a somewhat daunting task, albeit one that was within the realm of possibility.

But now? Well, Trump’s lot has improved significantly in these states since Thursday night, as Hillary Clinton’s lead appears to be fading fast:

Utah

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +5.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +6.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +0.2%

Georgia

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +2.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +5.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.9%

Iowa

Ohio

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +1.1%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.3%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.2%

Arizona

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.5%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +4.5%

Florida

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.6%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +0.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.1%

Nevada

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +2.0%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +1.6%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +3.6%

North Carolina

Obviously, these states are still too close to call, but Trump now is tied or enjoys small leads in all eight of them. Continue Reading

Posted on

Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“It’s over. Trump can’t win.” That’s the narrative the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media have relentlessly promoted over the past several days. The problem with that narrative is that it is a bald-faced lie. This election is nowhere near over. Not even close!

Let’s take a look at the electoral map. Remember, to become the next president of the United States, Trump needs to win 270 electoral votes. Conversely, he needs to hold Hillary Clinton to 269 electoral votes because, with a Republican House of Representatives, a 269-269 tie is likely to also result in a Trump presidency.

Trump’s baseline amount of electoral votes is 158. Let’s assume Clinton’s baseline is 239 — we will generously cede her Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), and three of Maine’s four electoral votes.

If this is a fixed reality, Trump must win the following states to get to 265 electoral votes (ordered from easiest to win to most difficult):

Utah

Utah just became a battleground state as Independent candidate Evan McMullin has been surging recently. It truly is a three-way race at the present. The most recent poll, conducted on October 23 and 24 by Heat Street/Rasmussen, gave Trump a narrow 32-29-28 lead over McMullin and Clinton, respectively.

Georgia

[…]

Read the full article at Townhall.com.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project. Continue Reading

Posted on

Poll: Voters Reject Democrats’ “Gender Identity” Agenda in This Swing State

Score another point for sanity.

A survey taken of voters in Arizona earlier this month shows that many Americans still have not bought into the idea that biology is completely irrelevant when it comes to bathrooms, locker rooms, showers, and other such public facilities.

According to the poll, just over half of respondents — 50.6 percent — said that individuals “should be required to use the restroom that matches their gender at birth.” Only 39.3 percent said that bathroom usage should be determined based off of how people “define their own gender.”

These results come amidst increasing opposition nationwide to the left’s radical “gender identity” agenda. Last week, a federal judge upheld a ruling against the Obama administration’s transgender school bathroom edict, preventing the president from enforcing a policy which would have forced schools across the country to allow students to use bathrooms, locker rooms, and showers and to participate on sports teams and in other sex-segregated activities based on their “internal sense of gender.”

We also reported here on The Pulse last week about recent developments in Massachusetts, where a number of churches have sued the state government over a law which would severely penalize houses of worship for failing to adhere to the new transgender ideology. Now, it’s possible that law could be voted down by statewide ballot in 2018.

And in North Carolina, ground-zero for the left’s bullying tactics, Gov. Pat McCrory’s odds of winning his race for reelection have greatly improved in the last couple weeks despite attempts by Democrats and the corporate-entertainment establishment to vilify him over his support for HB 2. Continue Reading