Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? We Make Our Electoral College Predictions

Happy Election Day! With voting set to conclude this evening — make sure to vote if you haven’t already! — it’s time to reveal our predictions for who will be sworn in next January as the 45th President of the United States.

Will it be Donald Trump? Or will it be Hillary Clinton? Here’s what our writers think:

Steve Wagner — Trump wins 274-264

A surprise upset in Wisconsin, plus key wins in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, propel Donald Trump to a 10-point electoral college victory.

Shane Vander Hart — Clinton wins 307-231

Hillary Clinton’s advantage in early voting, plus an uptick in Hispanic votes, is enough to push her over the top in Florida and Nevada while preventing Trump upsets in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Terry Schilling — Trump wins 278-260

Donald Trump ekes out a close win in Florida while using high turnout from working-class whites to pull off upsets in Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Maine’s 2nd congressional district (ME-2) — enough for an 18-point electoral college victory.

Matt Bowman — Trump wins 270-268

Swing state wins in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and ME-2 give Donald Trump just enough electoral votes to eke out a 2-point victory over Clinton.

William Upton — Clinton wins 283-255

Victories by Donald Trump in Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire are not enough to breach Hillary Clinton’s firewall, as she wins North Carolina and the White House.

Mary Powers — Trump wins 272-266

Despite losing Nevada, Donald Trump shocks the political world by winning Virginia and uses victories in Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire to complete his 6-point electoral college triumph over Clinton. Continue Reading

“Connecticut Avenue” Is Back: Second Episode of The Pulse’s New Podcast

Last week we launched Connecticut Avenue, the official podcast of The Pulse 2016. Today’s episode, our second, is hosted by Jon Schweppe, contributing editor to The Pulse 2016, and Kevin Dawson, a frequent contributor to The Pulse 2016.

Schweppe and Dawson touched on a number of topics today, including last week’s debate between Trump and Clinton (0:00), tonight’s VP debate between Pence and Kaine (6:00), Planned Parenthood’s 100th anniversary (7:30), the Hyde Amendment (12:00), Illinois’s anti-life, anti-religious freedom law (16:15), and Trump’s proposal to repeal the Johnson Amendment (23:30).

Check it out, and let us know what you think in the comments! Continue Reading

George Gilder: All Forms of Money Must Be Based on Time (VIDEO)

George Gilder is most recently the author the ground breaking The Scandal of Money: Why Wall Street Recovers but the Economy Never DoesHe is a founding fellow of the Discovery Institute and a senior fellow at the American Principles Project, which sponsored this book.

Gilder is also the author eighteen other well-regarded books including Knowledge and Powerand Microcosm. After the publication of Wealth and Poverty, he became Ronald Reagan’s most frequently quoted living author.

In the following clip — from a speech Gilder gave at FreedomFest 2016 — he explains how money, just like all forms of measurement, must be ultimately based on time:

But this is the great moment of opportunity as well as being a scandal. The opportunity has created again the efflorescence of the theory that began with Kurt Godel in 1931 when he showed that any logical system is necessarily dependent on propositions which can’t be proved within the system itself.

I think money is a logical system like that; it has to have roots and value outside of the system itself. Money cannot be part of what it measures. Money is not a commodity. This is the only relevant error I see in Austrian economics — that money is somehow a commodity.

…Money is [not a commodity], it is a measuring stick and it is necessary for a flourishing economy. It too has to be finally based on time. You can’t escape time; you can’t get away from time. When you try to do it, you just confuse everything.

Continue Reading

George Gilder: Angry About Inequality? Here’s the Real Culprit… (VIDEO)

George Gilder is most recently the author the ground breaking The Scandal of Money: Why Wall Street Recovers but the Economy Never DoesHe is a founding fellow of the Discovery Institute and a senior fellow at the American Principles Project, which sponsored this book.

Gilder is also the author eighteen other well-regarded books including Knowledge and Powerand Microcosm. After the publication of Wealth and Poverty, he became Ronald Reagan’s most frequently quoted living author.

In the following clip — from a speech Gilder gave at FreedomFest 2016 — he discusses how near-zero interest rates, far from stimulating economic growth, actually create an environment which fosters inequality.

Zero interest rates essentially zero out time.

As Hayek put it, the root and source of all monetary evil is the government monopoly of money. Matt Ridley said the government monopoly of money not only suppresses innovation and creativity, not only retards growth, it also fosters inequality. Because what we have today is a bifurcated economy produced by the government monopoly of money that fosters inequality.

Think of most of us. Most of us get paid by the hour, paid by the day. We are inexorably caught in the economy of time; that’s how we get compensated. But what’s happened in the world economy in recent decades as a result of the government monopoly of money and that exploitation of that government monopoly to allow the unlimited expansion of government power through the creation of money.

What’s happened is a financialization, a hypertrophy, of finance in the world economy.

Continue Reading

George Gilder: Money Is a Measuring Stick, Not a Magic Wand (VIDEO)

George Gilder is most recently the author the ground breaking The Scandal of Money: Why Wall Street Recovers but the Economy Never DoesHe is a founding fellow of the Discovery Institute and a senior fellow at the American Principles Project, which sponsored this book.

Gilder is also the author eighteen other well-regarded books including Knowledge and Power and Microcosm. After the publication of Wealth and Poverty, he became Ronald Reagan’s most frequently quoted living author.

In the following clip — from a speech Gilder gave at FreedomFest 2016 — he discusses why government ought to consider money as a measurement of value rather than as a magic wand to create growth:

If money is not an instrument of power, not a magic wand that governments can wave to summon economic growth, what is it?

I’ve been pondering this issue for many years and I didn’t get it right in Wealth and Poverty. Steve Forbes gave me the key insight when he began focusing on money as a clock or as measuring stick. He used the analogy of a clock. If a measuring stick is changing constantly, how can enterprises use money as a guide to their learning processes. If the clock was changing day by day; the hours change, the minutes change, as Steve pointed out, we would soon have times of false obligations — you would have to be constantly hedging the clock.

And that’s really what’s happening, because I believe that most fundamentally, money is time.

Continue Reading

George Gilder: This Simple Theory Explains the Success of Capitalism (VIDEO)

George Gilder is most recently the author the ground breaking The Scandal of Money: Why Wall Street Recovers but the Economy Never DoesHe is a founding fellow of the Discovery Institute and a senior fellow at the American Principles Project, which sponsored this book.

Gilder is also the author eighteen other well-regarded books including Knowledge and Power and Microcosm. After the publication of Wealth and Poverty, he became Ronald Reagan’s most frequently quoted living author.

In the following clip — from a speech Gilder gave at FreedomFest 2016 — he discusses how information theory relates to money and why all wealth is fundamentally knowledge:

…A professor at MIT named Cesar Hidalgo recently gave a good example to help you understand this concept. When an expensive car crashes into a wall, all its value disappears, although every molecule and atom remain. Value is information, the car is knowledge. And I can prove that all wealth is essentially knowledge.

…I believe that if wealth is knowledge, then growth is learning. Now to have learning, certain rules apply. Learning is most essentially experimental. If outcomes are guaranteed, learning is essentially prohibited.

…The reason capitalism is such an engine of learning and thus an engine of economic growth is because every business plan can fail; bankruptcy is possible. But if you have government guaranteeing everything by printing money whenever any enterprise is in jeopardy of falsification or bankruptcy then learning is prohibited. So the very policy that government follows to guarantee growth, intrinsically thwarts growth by arresting the learning process — by falsifying the learning process.

Continue Reading

Who Should Trump Choose for VP? Our Writers Weigh In . . .

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Of the candidates on Donald Trump’s reported VP shortlist, who would be his most advisable choice?

Ralph Benko

Mike Pence is just being Hoosier-in-Chief. The official state drink of Indiana is… water.

Only in Indiana. Milk too controversial apparently. That’s just how polite those Hoosiers are.

Not squishy. Polite!

Sweet Home Alabama! Their official state drink: Conecuh Ridge Alabama Fine Whiskey!

Hello, Sen. Sessions?

Deal W. Hudson

Trump’s VP pick should accomplish three things: first, assuage concerns about Trump’s lack of political experience; second, add a “steady hand” at the tiller in directing our nation through turbulent times; and, third, nail down the electoral votes of a key swing state. Newt Gingrich and Mike Pence satisfy the first two, though the former more so; but neither brings crucial electoral votes. General Michael Flynn adds nothing to the ticket except confusion. Gov. Chris Christie couldn’t carry his own state and makes the ticket New York/New Jersey. It doesn’t work on many levels. Thus, there is no likely choice who meets all three criteria. I hope there are some possible choices not on the short list.

Joshua Pinho

Of the three candidates for Trump’s VP, Newt Gingrich is the clear choice. Gingrich was one of Trump’s first key surrogates, at a time when few were willing to openly shill for Trump. Gingrich has spoken positively about Trump’s rise to political prominence and has encouraged his fellow Republicans to unite behind Trump. As VP, he could transition from surrogate/supporter to “attack dog,” a common role for a VP nominee. Continue Reading

Did Renee Ellmers Betray the Pro-Life Movement? (VIDEO)

Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of the Susan B. Anthony List, recently sat down with The Pulse 2016 to talk pro-life politics, and particularly the controversy that convinced her to work to defeat Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC) in next week’s state congressional primary:

THE PULSE 2016: So, who’s making you mad this week?

MARJORIE DANNENFELSER: Well, Renee Ellmers is at the top of the list. Honestly, she was the first person from North Carolina that I feel like we really could believe in. In a lot of ways, we were also the first PAC in when she decided to run she was a nurse, she totally understood the pro-life issue, and —

THE PULSE 2016: And what has she done to make you mad?

[…]

DANNENFELSER: To make me mad in particular, most recently, on the verge of the pro-life march a couple of years ago, when we had just set up everything to have the most beautiful vote on the Pain-Capable bill, the late term 5-month bill —

THE PULSE 2016: That was, like, January of last year…?

DANNENFELSER: That’s right. We had started to organize the entire march to surround the Capitol of the United States to pray while they were voting, and what happened in the middle of this? She really led the revolt to derail that bill.  There were others that had some issues. They wanted to change some language, but she went to the media. She started talking about how millennials really are not into this issue.

Continue Reading

ThePulse2016.com Chat: What Happened to Ted Cruz?

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

We held a chat this morning with several The Pulse 2016 contributors to discuss the end of Ted Cruz’s campaign. Where does the conservative movement go from here? Can Donald Trump be trusted by social conservatives?

Participants included:

schweppe [10:04 AM]: Okay. Well, let’s get started. Thanks to all of you for joining.

ralphbenko [10:05 AM]: You are welcome, Jon.

schweppe [10:05 AM] Last night, Ted Cruz dropped out of the race after losing Indiana… so what happened?

ralphbenko [10:05 AM] Here’s my piece at Forbes: How Donald Trump Beat Ted Cruz.

shane_vanderhart [10:05 AM] Yep got that in my inbox bright and early 🙂

shane_vanderhart [10:06 AM] This was written before Cruz dropped… Caffeinated Thoughts: Five Observations About Donald Trump’s Win in Indiana

ralphbenko [10:07 AM] Trump featured a powerful (and probably authentic) Peace and Prosperity narrative. Ted Cruz had a terrific Peace and Prosperity platform but muffled his narrative.

Just looking at their respective campaign websites shows this vividly.

Maggie nailed it perfectly a few weeks ago in her NR column (from which I quoted). [Editor’s Note: Maggie Gallagher’s National Review column can be found here.]

shane_vanderhart [10:08 AM] Ultimately narrative beat Cruz. It was hard to overcome the Trump PR machine aka the Media. Continue Reading

Huckabee: Pro-Lifers Have Been Fighting Abortion Battle “the Wrong Way”

Addressing the National Religious Liberties Conference last week, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee discussed the need to overturn Roe v. Wade and suggested pro-lifers should approach the issue with a different strategy.  You can see Huckabee’s remarks below:

MIKE HUCKABEE: For 42 years we’ve seen 60 million unborn children slain in their mother’s womb. I don’t know how in the world we honestly can pray ‘God bless America’ when we have acted like a savage uncivilized country in relation to unborn children. But once again, instead of us wringing our hands, and maybe pretending we’re gonna change the Constitution or overturn Roe v. Wade – which, by the way, overturning Roe v. Wade does absolutely nothing to stop abortion, it simply turns it back to the states; they can have all the abortions they want.

But what we have not done is what we should be doing, and what I would do, which is to say we will invoke the Fifth & Fourteenth Amendments as it relates to this issue, because here’s the fact – we don’t have to pass a Constitutional amendment, we already have two of them. The Fifth Amendment says that you cannot deprive a person of life or liberty without due process. And the Fourteenth Amendment says that everyone has equal protection under the law.

There’s but one question to be resolved: Is the unborn child a person, or just a blob of tissue? If a blob of tissue, then it has no constitutional rights. If the unborn child is in fact a person, no need to pass a new amendment.

Continue Reading