Everyone Got It Wrong… Well, Almost Everyone

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

Everyone got it wrong… well, almost everyone. Frank Cannon, president of American Principles Project, and a respected conservative political strategist with more than 30 years of experience, got it right consistently throughout the 2016 election cycle:

And check out this nugget from Frank’s most recent piece in Townhall, “Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think,” which was published two weeks ago:

But what if we challenge some assumptions? Imagine that these polling turnout models are oversampling Democrats by a couple percentage points, overestimating turnout for Hillary Clinton and plugging in numbers that would even exceed President Obama’s historic turnout in 2008 and 2012 — and when you investigate the cross-tabs on some of these polls, you absolutely see evidence of this taking place. What if the polls are getting it wrong, even slightly?

And what if there is a true Bradley Effect taking place with Donald Trump that is impacting polling results, i.e. a statistically significant number of Trump voters who are afraid to publicly announce, even to an anonymous pollster over the phone, that they are Trump voters in fear of social backlash, especially following the aggressive attempts by the radical left to intimidate and silence Trump voters by using charged language and even by threatening violence?

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Top Five States to Watch Tonight

From left: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

With just a few hours now separating us from the first election results, here are the five states I’m watching most closely tonight:

1.) North Carolina

Obviously, North Carolina is a key swing state in the presidential race, which is likely to be very close, but I’m even more interested in the results of the gubernatorial race between Republican Gov. Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper.

We’ve been talking about this race for months. McCrory has been under fire from a coalition of radical progressives, corporate bullies, and special interests for his support for HB 2, a bill that stopped an effort in Charlotte to redefine gender and give grown men the right to shower and access changing areas with young girls in public facilities.

The fate of HB 2 — and our best line of defense in the progressive war on gender — rests completely on the results of this race.

2.) New Jersey

Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.) is a strong conservative representative in New Jersey who came under fire for criticizing the NRCC for financially supporting Republican candidates who support same-sex marriage. Millions of dollars from outside special interest groups have since poured into New Jersey’s 5th congressional district to defeat Garrett in his race against special interest lobbyist Josh Gottheimer. With the NRCC declining to help Garrett at all, and with only a small coalition of conservatives refusing to abandon him, there’s no doubt he’s an underdog heading into tonight. Continue Reading

I Did It. I Voted for Donald Trump. Here’s Why.

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Tomorrow is Election Day. Tomorrow, we vote.

I want to talk a little bit about why I am voting for Donald Trump.

Early on in the GOP primary, I did not support Trump. My feelings on Trump were mixed. I thought his debate performances were entertaining. I enjoyed watching him destroy squishy establishment Republicans like Jeb Bush and John Kasich. Unlike many of my peers, I liked his brash demeanor, and I was captivated by his willingness to fight the liberal media.

But I had trust issues, many of which I wrote about here at The Pulse 2016. Was Donald Trump a true conservative? Was he really pro-life? Could he be trusted?

Abortion was my biggest concern with Trump from the very beginning. But Trump, wisely, made committing to the pro-life movement a priority. In his policy platform, Trump went further than any other GOP nominee in history, promising to…

  • …apply a litmus test to judicial appointees and nominate “pro-life” Supreme Court justices.
  • …sign the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, a 20-week ban on abortion.
  • …defund Planned Parenthood.
  • …protect the Hyde Amendment and fight against any government effort to commit taxpayer funds to abortion.

It was because of these commitments that I declared I would vote for Donald Trump in an op-ed in The Daily Caller in May:

And as President, [Trump] will promote a culture of life. He will make saving lives a priority.

Does he say stupid things? Absolutely. Trump has evoked every emotion within me.

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Six Days Left: Trump Has a Lot of Outs

When poker players are drawing to a straight or a flush, they will often talk about having a certain number of “outs” — i.e. how many cards are left in the deck that can make their hand, allowing them to win the pot.

Donald Trump doesn’t have a winning hand yet, but he has a lot of outs.

Last Thursday night, we wrote at Townhall about Donald Trump’s easier-than-you-think path to 270 electoral votes. We explained that Trump could get to 265 by winning Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. At the time, this still seemed like a somewhat daunting task, albeit one that was within the realm of possibility.

But now? Well, Trump’s lot has improved significantly in these states since Thursday night, as Hillary Clinton’s lead appears to be fading fast:

Utah

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +5.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +6.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +0.2%

Georgia

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +2.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +5.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.9%

Iowa

Ohio

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +1.1%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.3%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.2%

Arizona

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.5%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +4.5%

Florida

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.6%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +0.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.1%

Nevada

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +2.0%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +1.6%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +3.6%

North Carolina

Obviously, these states are still too close to call, but Trump now is tied or enjoys small leads in all eight of them. Continue Reading

Is Trump Outmaneuvering Clinton on TV?

Photo credit: flash.pro via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

Last month, I wrote about the Associated Press’ interactive tool that allows us to see where both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump — as well as the various super PACs supporting or opposing them — are spending money on TV ads. You can check it out here.

At the time, the situation looked somewhat dire. Week to week, the Trump campaign was getting outspent by the Clinton campaign at least 5 to 1, and sometimes by more. Things have improved dramatically since.

Trump’s October TV Ad Spending:

  • October 2 – October 8: $6,723,974
  • October 9 – October 15: $10,299,758
  • October 16 – October 22: $13,974,642
  • October 23 – October 29: $15,248,878

Clinton’s October TV Ad Spending:

  • October 2 – October 8: $24,615,578
  • October 9 – October 15: $27,178,214
  • October 16 – October 22: $27,184,236
  • October 23 – October 29: $38,631,418

The Clinton campaign still has quite an edge, but the Trump campaign has at least been competitive in October. It’s also interesting to see where both campaigns are spending:

Clinton’s TV Ad Spending By State (October 16 – 22):

  • Florida: $7,021,119
  • Pennsylvania: $3,211,502
  • Ohio: $3,164,488
  • North Carolina: $2,508,899
  • Nevada: $1,812,832
  • New Hampshire: $1,464,935
  • Colorado: $1,117,840
  • Iowa: $1,033,225
  • Arizona: $530,750
  • Georgia: $161,322

Clinton’s TV Ad Spending By State (October 23 – 29):

  • Florida: $10,467,397
  • Ohio: $5,027,531
  • Pennsylvania: $4,746,023
  • North Carolina: $4,059,559
  • Nevada: $2,667,294
  • New Hampshire: $1,675,522
  • Iowa: $1,337,795
  • Arizona: $1,315,618
  • Georgia: $537,814
  • Colorado: $380,067

Trump’s TV Ad Spending By State (October 16 – 22):

  • Florida: $3,480,950
  • Pennsylvania: $1,485,646
  • Ohio: $1,218,202
  • North Carolina: $970,203
  • Colorado: $837,662
  • Nevada: $835,366
  • New Hampshire: $799,516
  • Virginia: $560,140
  • Wisconsin: $471,857
  • Iowa: $334,879

Trump’s TV Ad Spending By State (October 23 – 29):

  • Florida: $4,226,822
  • Pennsylvania: $1,679,017
  • Ohio: $1,401,368
  • North Carolina: $1,268,145
  • Nevada: $936,952
  • Colorado: $821,342
  • New Hampshire: $533,966
  • Wisconsin: $520,879
  • Iowa: $411,696
  • Virginia: $403,090

Trump’s TV ad spending is much more concentrated than Clinton’s. Continue Reading

Did We Publish an Inaccurate Headline? McMullin Fans Think So…

On Thursday, I wrote a piece titled, “Evan McMullin Admits His Campaign Strategy Is to Elect Hillary Clinton.” Dozens of McMullin supporters commented on the story and tweeted at me to tell me the headline was misleading.

Okay. So let’s rehash this. Here is what McMullin said, in full:

Via RealClearPolitics:

QUESTION: How many states are you going to be on the ballot would you say?

EVAN MCMULLIN: Right now we’re either on the ballot or registered as a write-in in 34 states. By the time we get to November 8th it will be 40 to 45. And that’s plenty for our strategy which is not a conventional strategy. We’re not trying to win 270 votes. Of course that would be great but it’s just not going to happen, this is a three-month presidential campaign.

So, what we’re trying to do is earn enough electoral votes to block Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump if the race between both of them is so close that we are able to do that by winning 1 or 2 states. So, that’s the idea. But if not that then we will be happy to have prevented someone who I believe is a true authoritarian from taking power in the United States and that’s Donald Trump. [Emphasis added]

In his own words, Evan McMullin admits to having a two-pronged strategy. The supposed primary objective is to block both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump from winning 270 electoral votes by winning “one or two” states. Continue Reading

Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“It’s over. Trump can’t win.” That’s the narrative the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media have relentlessly promoted over the past several days. The problem with that narrative is that it is a bald-faced lie. This election is nowhere near over. Not even close!

Let’s take a look at the electoral map. Remember, to become the next president of the United States, Trump needs to win 270 electoral votes. Conversely, he needs to hold Hillary Clinton to 269 electoral votes because, with a Republican House of Representatives, a 269-269 tie is likely to also result in a Trump presidency.

Trump’s baseline amount of electoral votes is 158. Let’s assume Clinton’s baseline is 239 — we will generously cede her Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), and three of Maine’s four electoral votes.

If this is a fixed reality, Trump must win the following states to get to 265 electoral votes (ordered from easiest to win to most difficult):

Utah

Utah just became a battleground state as Independent candidate Evan McMullin has been surging recently. It truly is a three-way race at the present. The most recent poll, conducted on October 23 and 24 by Heat Street/Rasmussen, gave Trump a narrow 32-29-28 lead over McMullin and Clinton, respectively.

Georgia

[…]

Read the full article at Townhall.com.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project. Continue Reading

Evan McMullin Admits His Campaign Strategy Is to Elect Hillary Clinton

Evan McMullin (photo via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0)

I have a lot of friends voting for Evan McMullin, the independent presidential candidate.

McMullin is a hero to what’s left of the #NeverTrump movement. He is supposedly a conservative, although many conservatives are skeptical. Maybe he’s a fine person. I don’t even care to contest that. I don’t know him.

But McMullin is not a viable candidate for president. He is a spoiler candidate, and he is fully aware of this! That’s why his campaign strategy, as he revealed in a recent interview, is not to win 270 electoral votes, but instead, to swing the election to Hillary Clinton.

Via RealClearPolitics:

QUESTION: How many states are you going to be on the ballot would you say?

EVAN MCMULLIN: Right now we’re either on the ballot or registered as a write-in in 34 states. By the time we get to November 8th it will be 40 to 45. And that’s plenty for our strategy which is not a conventional strategy. We’re not trying to win 270 votes. Of course that would be great but it’s just not going to happen, this is a three-month presidential campaign.

So, what we’re trying to do is earn enough electoral votes to block Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump if the race between both of them is so close that we are able to do that by winning 1 or 2 states. So, that’s the idea. But if not that then we will be happy to have prevented someone who I believe is a true authoritarian from taking power in the United States and that’s Donald Trump.

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Why I Wish Republicans Were More Like Harry Reid

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) (photo credit: Center for American Progress Action Fund via Flickr, CC BY-ND 2.0)

I really wish Republicans were more like outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid.

In a wide-ranging interview with Talking Points Memo, a left-wing news outlet, Reid (D-Nev.) proudly declared that he is setting the stage for the Democrats to eliminate the 60-vote filibuster rule should they win control of the Senate in November, allowing for the confirmation of Supreme Court justices with a simple majority:

Envisioning Hillary Clinton in the White House and Democrats controlling the Senate, Reid warned that if a Senate Republican minority block her Supreme Court nominee, he is confident the party won’t hesitate to change the filibuster rules again.

Such a move would be an extension of what Reid did in 2013 when he was still majority leader, eliminating filibusters (with a simple majority vote) on the President’s nominees. There was only one exception: the Supreme Court. As it stands now, Democrats still need 60 votes to move forward with a Supreme Court nominee.

Reid said, however, that could change.

“I really do believe that I have set the Senate so when I leave, we’re going to be able to get judges done with a majority. It takes only a simple majority anymore. And, it’s clear to me that if the Republicans try to filibuster another circuit court judge, but especially a Supreme Court justice, I’ve told ’em how and I’ve done it, not just talking about it.

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The Five Battleground States Trump Needs to Win

The media has grown obsessed with driving the narrative that Hillary Clinton has this election in the bag. Supposedly, according to our elite overlords, this election is so over. You might as well stay home!

But when you analyze the data, placed in context, especially on a state-by-state basis, this narrative reveals itself to be ridiculous. The presidential race is still very close. It’s not over yet.

Some pollsters say Clinton is up double digits. Others say the race is a virtual tie. The stark differences can be chalked up to differing turnout models: Will Democrats turn out for Hillary Clinton like they did for Barack Obama, as many of these models that show Clinton up double digits presume? Or will Donald Trump add new voters to Romney’s insufficient 2012 coalition and surprise with a victory? It’s hard to tell.

But regardless, national polling numbers matter little. The electoral college determines the next president. So for that, we look to state polling numbers.

And state polling has been very close.

Remember, for Trump to become president, he just needs to deny Hillary Clinton a victory and get to an electoral tie, 269-269, at which point the House of Representatives would pick a president, and presumably, the Republican House would pick Trump.

Here are the top five battleground states Trump needs to win to make that happen:

5.) Florida and Ohio

Okay, maybe I meant top six. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins without winning Florida (29 electoral votes) and Ohio (18). Continue Reading