McCrory Didn’t Lose Because HB 2 Was a “Social Issue”

North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (photo credit: NCDOTcommunications via Flickr, CC BY 2.0)

Today, North Carolina’s Republican Gov. Pat McCrory announced he would be conceding the state’s gubernatorial race to Democratic Gov.-elect Roy Cooper, bringing an end to several weeks of recounts and investigations into alleged cases of voter fraud.

Despite his defeat, conservatives should applaud Gov. Pat McCrory for standing up for what is right. He refused to back down from corporate bullies and progressive lynch mobs, and because of his steadfastness, he became Public Enemy Number Two this election cycle for the Left. Ultimately, they got their scalp only by the narrowest of margins.

While McCrory’s defeat is disappointing, there are several positives to take away from the North Carolina governor’s race for conservatives:

1.) McCrory came very close to winning despite being outspent by nearly $8 million. He was less than 10,000 votes away from withstanding an outright blitzkrieg of hate from corporate America, the sports-entertainment complex, and Hollywood celebrities.

2.) Make no mistake, the Left recognized that they couldn’t defend Charlotte’s radical ordinance on its merits. Instead, they turned HB 2 into an economic issue by convincing elite corporations, sports leagues, and celebrities to punish the state of North Carolina for protecting the privacy of young girls. This branding effort, which focused on the consequences of keeping HB 2 amidst blackmail from corporate and entertainment elites, created a phenomenon where HB 2 became toxic to a majority of voters, while voters still supported the substance of HB 2. Continue Reading

Six Days Left: Trump Has a Lot of Outs

When poker players are drawing to a straight or a flush, they will often talk about having a certain number of “outs” — i.e. how many cards are left in the deck that can make their hand, allowing them to win the pot.

Donald Trump doesn’t have a winning hand yet, but he has a lot of outs.

Last Thursday night, we wrote at Townhall about Donald Trump’s easier-than-you-think path to 270 electoral votes. We explained that Trump could get to 265 by winning Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. At the time, this still seemed like a somewhat daunting task, albeit one that was within the realm of possibility.

But now? Well, Trump’s lot has improved significantly in these states since Thursday night, as Hillary Clinton’s lead appears to be fading fast:

Utah

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +5.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +6.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +0.2%

Georgia

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +2.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +5.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.9%

Iowa

Ohio

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +1.1%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.3%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.2%

Arizona

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.5%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +4.5%

Florida

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.6%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +0.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.1%

Nevada

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +2.0%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +1.6%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +3.6%

North Carolina

Obviously, these states are still too close to call, but Trump now is tied or enjoys small leads in all eight of them. Continue Reading

After Obamacare Bombshell, Polls Show Trump Gaining

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

In my post yesterday, I speculated that news of skyrocketing insurance premiums under Obamacare might spur a further surge in the polls for Donald Trump. The newest polling numbers being released now seem to confirm this.

On RealClearPolitics, the six national polls which were taken either during or after October 25th (the day after the Obamacare news broke) show Trump’s gap to Hillary Clinton down to 3.5 points in a two-way race. When expanded to a four-way race, seven polls show Clinton’s lead even smaller — only 3.1 points.

When the media focus is on Clinton and the Democrats, Trump is the clear beneficiary. The only question now is whether Trump can avoid drawing negative attention back to himself in the next 11 days.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Continue Reading

Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“It’s over. Trump can’t win.” That’s the narrative the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media have relentlessly promoted over the past several days. The problem with that narrative is that it is a bald-faced lie. This election is nowhere near over. Not even close!

Let’s take a look at the electoral map. Remember, to become the next president of the United States, Trump needs to win 270 electoral votes. Conversely, he needs to hold Hillary Clinton to 269 electoral votes because, with a Republican House of Representatives, a 269-269 tie is likely to also result in a Trump presidency.

Trump’s baseline amount of electoral votes is 158. Let’s assume Clinton’s baseline is 239 — we will generously cede her Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), and three of Maine’s four electoral votes.

If this is a fixed reality, Trump must win the following states to get to 265 electoral votes (ordered from easiest to win to most difficult):

Utah

Utah just became a battleground state as Independent candidate Evan McMullin has been surging recently. It truly is a three-way race at the present. The most recent poll, conducted on October 23 and 24 by Heat Street/Rasmussen, gave Trump a narrow 32-29-28 lead over McMullin and Clinton, respectively.

Georgia

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Read the full article at Townhall.com.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project. Continue Reading

Biased or Not, New Polls Show a Tightening Race

From left: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Amidst all the controversy over whether recent polling of the presidential race has been under-representing Republican voters or over-representing other groups (such as black voters), a more important story is being lost in the noise.

There has been a significant amount of national polling released in the past week – enough to give us a clear idea of where the race currently stands. And, crazy though this may sound, the race has grown much closer than many in the media might want to admit.

The RealClearPolitics polling average from the past week shows Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton nationally by 5.4 points in a two-way race. This same gap holds when expanded to a four-way race. And in individual swing-state polling, the race is even tighter:

  • Florida: 5 polls taken since 10/20 show Trump behind by just 1.6 points.
  • Nevada: RCP’s average shows Trump behind by 3.6 points, with 3 polls taken since 10/20.
  • New Hampshire: The most recent poll taken in New Hampshire shows Trump down by 4 points.
  • North Carolina: RCP’s average shows Trump down by 2 points, with 4 polls taken since 10/20.
  • Ohio: The only poll taken since 10/20 shows Trump leading by 4 points.

During the past week, the prevailing narrative in the media has been that the 2016 race is over, Trump’s campaign is imploding, and the Clinton transition team is taking shape. However, given the above results, it is clearly still too premature to be reporting a Democratic victory, and certainly not a decisive one. Continue Reading

Paul Ryan or Donald Trump: Who Represents the GOP?

Check out this poll released today by Bloomberg. When Republican voters were asked whether Donald Trump or Paul Ryan better matches their own view of what the GOP should stand for, they responded as follows:

Source: Bloomberg.com

 

Republican leaders should take this result very seriously as they start to think about what the post-2016 GOP will look like. Given all that has happened to Trump this fall, it’s telling that over half of the Republican base still believes he represents their views better than the GOP establishment’s most nationally recognizable figure.

Why is this? While policy differences may play some role, I think voters’ affinity to Trump is primarily due to his focus on the concerns of ordinary Americans — rather than the elite class — as well as the Republican Party’s overall inability to oppose the reshaping of America by progressives during the Obama era.

If the GOP cannot adapt itself to take these concerns into account, the party is unlikely to win over these voters in future elections. In fact, 2016 could very likely play itself out all over again.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Continue Reading

Wikileaks: Clinton Staffers Caught Mocking Catholics and Evangelicals

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (photo credit: Steve Jurvetson via Flickr, CC BY 2.0)

As is being widely reported today, WikiLeaks recently released a set of emails featuring bigoted, anti-Christian diatribes from three staffers and advisors to Hillary Clinton. The leaked emails also included a confession from John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, to commissioning an effort via the Center for American Progress to launch a “Catholic spring” to foment rebellion within the Church against thousands of years of Catholic doctrine.

This should come as no surprise, however. Hillary Clinton’s anti-religious freedom policies aim to segregate people of faith away from the public square. This is the implicit goal of progressive policies like President Obama’s HHS mandate and the so-called ‘Equality Act.’ Given these radical, anti-religious positions, it’s not a shock to find out that Clinton’s top staffers hold bigoted, anti-Christian views.

These nasty comments were not directed solely at Catholics, either. Clinton staffers openly mocked evangelical Christians as well. They were ecumenical equal opportunity offenders.

It is also concerning that John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, is attempting to divide the Catholic Church through a series of front groups, which aim to pit Catholic against Catholic by encouraging practicing Catholics to deny Catholic doctrine. This is despicable.

These emails reveal a bigoted, anti-Christian attitude held by those who will be managing the day-to-day activities of our country if Clinton is elected. Catholics and Evangelicals should keep this in mind as they head to the voting booth in November.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Continue Reading

Why Is No One Talking About This Swing State?

Photo credit: Ron Cogswell via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

Don’t look now, but in the last few weeks the electoral map has shifted significantly in favor of Donald Trump.

Paul Dupont wrote here yesterday about Trump’s updated path to victory and how he currently needs only one more state to push him over the top. And at FiveThirtyEight today, Nate Silver made a similar argument, just in reverse, writing that Hillary Clinton’s electoral map has shrunken to give her one — but only one — “really good” path to victory, which involves her winning every state she is currently leading in. If even one of those states moves toward Trump, however, it will result in Clinton having “a total mess on her hands.”

Both Dupont and Silver identify many of the same swing states most likely to defect from the Clinton column: New Hampshire, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. However, I think they both overlook one key state which could be poised to take everyone by surprise: New Mexico.

Why New Mexico? For one, although it doesn’t show up in the RealClearPolitics’ average, the most recent polling data from Reuters/Ipsos shows Trump leading by five points over Clinton in New Mexico, while a Morning Consult poll from earlier this month has Trump trailing by only one point in a four-way race. Furthermore, many pundits forget that while President Obama has won New Mexico in the last two presidential elections, Republicans took the state by a slim margin in 2004. Continue Reading

How Giant Meteor of Death Can Become President

Giant Meteor of Death

Are you dreading the overwhelming probability that either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will become president?

Here’s a long-shot scenario to raise your spirits. Many of us are big supporters of the Giant Meteor of Death, a candidate who has promised to destroy ISIS, eliminate America’s national debt, and make a real “impact” on Washington, D.C. He is the change candidate we have all been waiting for — for millions of years!

Giant Meteor’s historic candidacy has hit a major road block, however. The Death campaign has struggled with ballot access, and Giant Meteor is currently relegated to being a write-in candidate in all 50 states. The odds of a write-in candidate winning a state, even a groundbreaking candidate like Giant Meteor, are pretty much zero.

So how can he — or she, Giant Meteor has not, as of this writing, outlined a policy on preferred pronouns — win the presidency?

First, neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton can get to 270 votes. Jon Schweppe wrote about two possible no-win scenarios last week. Here’s another possibility. What if Trump wins Maine, which recent polling has shown is a toss-up, and forces a 269-269 tie?

Map via 270towin.com

 

So we have the perfect tie scenario. What happens then? The Constitution dictates that the newly elected House of Representatives would then decide the president by giving each state delegation one vote. The top three candidates who received electoral votes would be eligible in this run-off. In a 269-269 scenario, that would be limited to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Continue Reading

Why Is RedState Attacking a Committed Pro-Life Leader? (VIDEO)

Frank Cannon is president of the American Principles Project and a respected conservative political strategist with over 30 years of experience.

…Donald Trump has made specific promises that [Susan B. Anthony List president] Marjorie [Dannenfelser] has gotten from him in a letter that she’s sending out to recruit other pro-life leaders. They’re the most sweeping promises on pro-life issues ever made. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has committed to abortion on demand up until birth, and with taxpayer funding of it. And to think that somebody who’s committed to that issue needs to adopt whatever it is that is motivating those at RedState to oppose Trump or else to not be sincere and all the other personal attacks that were conveyed in that is beyond the pale.

And I think if you go to The Pulse today and read Terry Schilling’s article on this, it conveys exactly the sense that I have about this which is that particularly for people who are comparing the two candidates on what they have said publicly about their issues, they should be respected and their motives not impugned.

[…]

Continue Reading