Was Wisconsin Trump’s Waterloo?

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

It is possible that Wisconsin may be Donald Trump’s Waterloo. After all, he did lose Waterloo, Wisconsin. While Senator Cruz enjoyed a five-point lead in the polls ahead of the voting, he over-performed and won by 13 points, taking 48 percent of the vote. Donald Trump finished second with 35 percent.

Turnout broke a record set in 1980, when a guy named Ronald Reagan (perhaps you’ve heard of him) was running.

Tuesday night’s win was significant for Senator Ted Cruz, not only for the size of the win, but what it means for the chances of a contested convention in Cleveland.

For Donald Trump to prevail with a majority vote of the delegates on the first ballot, he would need to win at least 60 percent of the delegates in the remaining primaries. These states may favor Trump, but it will be difficult for him to reach the goal of 1,237 delegates.

Meanwhile, Cruz continues to do well in the delegate selection process, which is separate from the primary contests.

By the way, it is a matter of Republican orthodoxy that trade deals create jobs. But according to exit polls, 54 percent of Republican voters believe that trade deals cost American jobs. Paul Ryan, call your office.

Here’s another interesting finding from the exit polls: 69 percent of Wisconsin’s GOP primary voters support a temporary moratorium on Muslim immigration.

Washington elites in both parties were mortified when that idea was first put on the table. Continue Reading

Cruz Crushes in Wisconsin

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Ted Cruz won by double-digits in the Badger State, outperforming any poll taken, and blasting through the RealClearPolitics average which pegged him at just over 4 points ahead of Donald Trump.

Cruz proved wrong the pundits who predicted the Rust Belt would be Trump territory, aided by some unforced (but remarkably typical) errors by Trump, who responded to Scott Walker’s endorsement of Cruz by lambasting the popular governor for not raising taxes, insulted Heidi Cruz, and wandered around the abortion issue for a while seemingly uncertain of what he believes.

New York, Trump’s home state, still looks safe for him. But Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is now below double digits. Can Cruz put away John Kasich, the zombie candidate, in the Keystone State?

Here’s one thing Wisconsin shows: the world would be different if conservative talk radio and the GOP establishment had both been willing to rally behind the one principled conservative in the race.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

Dueling Polls Cast Doubt About Who Will Win Wisconsin Today

From left: Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

The last two polls show dramatically different outcomes in Wisconsin’s winner-take-all primary tonight.

Emerson shows Ted Cruz at 40 percent, up by 5 over Trump, while ARG says Trump is up by 10 points over Cruz, 42 percent to 32 percent.

If Trump wins Wisconsin, he is likely to win the nomination. If Cruz takes all the delegates, Trump’s path to a majority becomes much harder to see.

I don’t recall ever seeing such wildly different polls in the same time period.

It’s up to the voters now.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

New Polls: Cruz Surging in Wisconsin, Trump Trouncing in N.Y. and Pennsylvania

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Donald Trump

The latest poll shows Ted Cruz is up by 6 points in Wisconsin, a winner-take-all primary on Tuesday. And Donald Trump’s terribly bad week — attacking Heidi Cruz, wriggling around on abortion, attacking Scott Walker for balancing the budget without raising taxes, and assorted policy missteps — appears to be hurting him in a national poll.

For the first time in a month, Trump dipped below 40 percent of GOP voters, down to 38 percent in the latest Investor’s Business Daily poll, just 7 points ahead of Cruz.

But there was some good news for Trump in the northeast. He is close to 50 percent in Pennsylvania (47 percent), with Cruz and John Kasich splitting the un-Trump vote, and, despite a bad week, he is still over 50 percent in New York (52 percent), with the same Cruz and Kasich split giving him a massive double digit lead.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

New Poll: Cruz Surging Ahead of Trump in Wisconsin

From left: Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

The new Marquette poll of Wisconsin voters shows a startling reversal compared to the last poll we just wrote about.

Ted Cruz is now up ten points over Donald Trump, 40 percent to 30 percent, with Cruz’s attacks against John Kasich apparently shrinking the Ohio governor’s support back down to 21 percent.

The anti-Trump vote in Wisconsin is approaching Utah levels. This is good news for Cruz, and for the country.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

Clinton Collapse in Wisconsin?

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

I hope this is an outlier, because Hillary Clinton is an incredibly weak candidate, but the latest Wisconsin poll shows Bernie Sanders beating Hillary, 49 percent to 45 percent.

The outsider candidates (Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Sanders) continue to roll.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

The Kasich Surge in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

All the fighting about wives between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump appears to be hurting both, while John Kasich is swooping in to claim the moderate/liberal lane in a divided GOP.

A new Wisconsin poll has Trump slumping to 31 percent, just two points ahead of a surging Kasich, who is in turn two points ahead of Cruz. That’s a drop of 3 points for Trump and of 9 points for Cruz. You cannot out-Trump the Trump. Headlines detailing the spat over wives, whomever started it first, are turning off voters who want a president who will make their lives better, not further degrade their daily experience.

By staying outside the feuds and relatively unknown, Kasich is putting himself in contention to block Cruz in Wisconsin and possibly Pennsylvania, where a new poll shows Trump stuck at 33 percent and Kasich surging to 30 percent.

Cruz’s super PAC has responded with this attack ad, finally focused on Cruz’s economic message and emphasizing that Kasich is not an economic conservative:

(Since Kasich has boldly seized the moderate lane, as Patrick Ruffini just tweeted, I’m not sure that emphasizing he’s not that conservative economically helps).

The divisions in the GOP are now boldly on display. The DC GOP establishment should be getting a clear message: the standard Republican economic message is not connecting with voters — not even GOP base voters. This is the true divide Trump is exploiting — he has conceded and adopted social conservative positions and has driven a stake into the standard Chamber of Commerce pro-business Republicanism. Continue Reading

BREAKING: Gov. Scott Walker Makes Huge Endorsement

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (photo via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0)

Many have been speculating whether Scott Walker would make an endorsement prior to Wisconsin’s primary on April 5th.

Would he jump on the Donald Trump train? Would he go with the establishment’s reluctant favorite, John Kasich?

Nope. Scott Walker is going with Ted Cruz. And as a thrice elected governor in Wisconsin, Walker certainly carries a lot of weight with GOP voters.

From The Hill:

Walker’s endorsement has the potential to shift the dynamic in the state, which has 42 delegates up for grabs. But Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist, told The Hill that the true effect will depend on how active Walker is in support of Cruz over the coming days.

“Walker’s endorsement would and should move dozens of state legislators — it’s the kind of thing that should really move numbers really quickly,” Mackowiak said ahead of the endorsement.

“If he endorses strongly, criticizes Trump, they get big media across the state and he brings his statewide organization with him, that would be hugely significant.”

Cruz is doing well in Wisconsin — the two most recent polls show him leading, albeit by a slim margin. This endorsement could prove to be critical in a must-win state for Cruz.

Jon Schweppe is Communications Director for the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @JonSchweppe. Continue Reading

Polls: Cruz Leads in Wisconsin, Surges Nationally Against Trump

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Donald Trump

Two new polls show a Ted Cruz surge and suggest Donald Trump may be having difficulty in putting away his rivals.

A new Fox News national poll shows Trump at 41 percent while Cruz trails by just 3 points at 38 percent.

Even more significantly, the first Wisconsin poll from Emerson shows Cruz in a statistical dead heat with Trump, holding a 1 point lead over the national front runner, 36 percent to 35 percent.

Thomas Valentine is a researcher for the American Principles Project and a junior at the Franciscan University of Steubenville. Continue Reading