Six Days Left: Trump Has a Lot of Outs

When poker players are drawing to a straight or a flush, they will often talk about having a certain number of “outs” — i.e. how many cards are left in the deck that can make their hand, allowing them to win the pot.

Donald Trump doesn’t have a winning hand yet, but he has a lot of outs.

Last Thursday night, we wrote at Townhall about Donald Trump’s easier-than-you-think path to 270 electoral votes. We explained that Trump could get to 265 by winning Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. At the time, this still seemed like a somewhat daunting task, albeit one that was within the realm of possibility.

But now? Well, Trump’s lot has improved significantly in these states since Thursday night, as Hillary Clinton’s lead appears to be fading fast:

Utah

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +5.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +6.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +0.2%

Georgia

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +2.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +5.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.9%

Iowa

Ohio

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +1.1%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.3%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.2%

Arizona

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.5%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +4.5%

Florida

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.6%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +0.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.1%

Nevada

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +2.0%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +1.6%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +3.6%

North Carolina

Obviously, these states are still too close to call, but Trump now is tied or enjoys small leads in all eight of them. Continue Reading

New Polls Show Trump Needs Just One More State to Win

A new Florida poll from Suffolk University was released today showing Donald Trump with a slim, single-point lead over Hillary Clinton. But while this was only the latest poll showing a close race in the Sunshine State, it was enough to tip RealClearPolitics’ Florida polling average in the direction of Trump, who now leads by a slender 0.1-point margin. This means, going by RCP’s polling average in each state, Trump has closed to within six electoral votes of Clinton if the election were held today:

Map via RealClearPolitics.com

 

So, assuming all current polling is generally accurate, Trump still needs to see significant gains in one more state — as well as holding his leads in every current red state — in order to defeat Clinton. While this is admittedly a tall order, the electoral map does appear incredibly more favorable to Trump than it did only a month or two ago.

But which remaining blue state does Trump stand the best chance of flipping? The following are his most likely possibilities (in no particular order):

Colorado

Not long ago, media outlets were writing the obituary for the Trump campaign in Colorado, as shifting demographics appeared to put the normally purple state out of play for Republicans. However, limited polling in the state since the beginning of September has shown a narrowing race. A survey from early this month showed Clinton’s lead down from double digits to just five points, while another more recent poll from Emerson gave Trump a four-point lead. Continue Reading

New State Polls Confirm Trump’s Upward Trend

On Friday, we broke down the Electoral College and proposed several different scenarios where Trump could win the presidency. He needs to perform well in 12 key battleground states.

Iowa and Virginia are two of those states. And according to a new pair of Emerson polls, Trump is winning in Iowa and virtually tied in Virginia.

  • Emerson (Iowa, 8/31 – 9/1): Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 8 (Trump +5)
  • Emerson (Virginia, 8/31 – 9/1): Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 11 (Clinton +1)

That being said, we should probably curb our enthusiasm. Trump still has a lot of work to do in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, according to a pair of CBS News/YouGov surveys.

  • CBS News/YouGov (Pennsylvania, 8/30 – 9/2): Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 6 (Clinton +8)
  • CBS News/YouGov (North Carolina, 8/30 – 9/2): Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 4 (Clinton +4)

But assuming Trump can manage a turnaround in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the importance of also winning Virginia, a state many pundits have already written off for the GOP, can’t be overstated. If Trump manages to win these four states, that would put the Electoral College count at 214-208 in favor of Clinton with eight battleground states undecided: Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Missouri (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Florida (29).

In that scenario, Trump would have to be seen as a favorite.

Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project.

 

 

  Continue Reading

State-by-State Breakdown: Here’s How Hillary Could Lose

When trying to handicap the presidential race, it is tempting to rely on national polling. But ultimately the next president is not determined by the popular vote — he or she will be determined state-by-state via the electoral college.

We report on national polling at The Pulse 2016 all the time, so I don’t mean to suggest there isn’t use for it. Analytics outfits like FiveThirtyEight have found heavy correlations between national polling and election results at the state level.

Because of this correlation, it’s almost a mathematical certainty that, if Clinton wins the popular vote by ten points on Election Day, she would also win the electoral college. But what if she wins the popular vote by just one or two points? As we learned in 2000 with the election of George W. Bush, the results of the popular vote and the electoral college don’t always agree with each other.

And we shouldn’t expect a landslide. As we reported earlier this week, the race has tightened dramatically. Clinton and Trump are virtually tied as we head into Labor Day weekend.

So what can we expect from the electoral college? Let’s first look at the states we can predict with near certainty. These states serve as each candidate’s electoral vote floor.

Map via 270towin.com

 

SAFE RED: Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (38), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5), Tennessee (11), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), South Carolina (9)

TRUMP: 137

SAFE BLUE: Washington (12), Oregon (7), California (55), New Mexico (5), Minnesota (10), Illinois (20), New York (29), Vermont (3), Maine (4), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3)

CLINTON: 201

These results are basically preordained. Continue Reading

Trump’s Surge Continues: The Donald Pulls Ahead of Hillary in More Polling

From left: Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (credit: Gage Skidmore/Marc Nozell)

Two more national polls were released this weekend showing Donald Trump closing in on — and even pulling ahead of — Hillary Clinton.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Trump just three points behind Clinton in a head-to-head match-up, an eight-point jump from last month and within the poll’s margin of error. And an ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump leading Clinton by two points, an 11-point swing from two months previous. Added to other recent polling, the combined RealClearPolitics average now shows Trump barely leading Clinton nationally, a massive surge from just weeks ago.

Looking more closely at the numbers, one of the most noteworthy findings involves Clinton’s inability to win over Bernie Sanders voters. One out of five Sanders supporters in the ABC poll would support Trump over Clinton (versus 71 percent for Hillary), and NBC notes that only 66 percent of Sanders voters would support Clinton over Trump in its poll. While this could certainly change in favor of Clinton if and when she locks up the Democratic nomination, a continued struggle would present a fantastic opportunity for Trump, who could contrast his perceived outsider status with Clinton’s establishment insider image.

A number of battleground state polls were also released over the weekend showing slight leads for Clinton over Trump in Ohio (five-point lead) and Florida (one-point lead) and a dead-heat among both candidates in Virginia. The number to watch in these states moving forward will be that of the undecided independents. Continue Reading