Top Five States to Watch Tonight

From left: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

With just a few hours now separating us from the first election results, here are the five states I’m watching most closely tonight:

1.) North Carolina

Obviously, North Carolina is a key swing state in the presidential race, which is likely to be very close, but I’m even more interested in the results of the gubernatorial race between Republican Gov. Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper.

We’ve been talking about this race for months. McCrory has been under fire from a coalition of radical progressives, corporate bullies, and special interests for his support for HB 2, a bill that stopped an effort in Charlotte to redefine gender and give grown men the right to shower and access changing areas with young girls in public facilities.

The fate of HB 2 — and our best line of defense in the progressive war on gender — rests completely on the results of this race.

2.) New Jersey

Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.) is a strong conservative representative in New Jersey who came under fire for criticizing the NRCC for financially supporting Republican candidates who support same-sex marriage. Millions of dollars from outside special interest groups have since poured into New Jersey’s 5th congressional district to defeat Garrett in his race against special interest lobbyist Josh Gottheimer. With the NRCC declining to help Garrett at all, and with only a small coalition of conservatives refusing to abandon him, there’s no doubt he’s an underdog heading into tonight. Continue Reading

Six Days Left: Trump Has a Lot of Outs

When poker players are drawing to a straight or a flush, they will often talk about having a certain number of “outs” — i.e. how many cards are left in the deck that can make their hand, allowing them to win the pot.

Donald Trump doesn’t have a winning hand yet, but he has a lot of outs.

Last Thursday night, we wrote at Townhall about Donald Trump’s easier-than-you-think path to 270 electoral votes. We explained that Trump could get to 265 by winning Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. At the time, this still seemed like a somewhat daunting task, albeit one that was within the realm of possibility.

But now? Well, Trump’s lot has improved significantly in these states since Thursday night, as Hillary Clinton’s lead appears to be fading fast:

Utah

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +5.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +6.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +0.2%

Georgia

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +2.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +5.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.9%

Iowa

Ohio

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +1.1%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.3%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.2%

Arizona

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.5%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +4.5%

Florida

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.6%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +0.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.1%

Nevada

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +2.0%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +1.6%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +3.6%

North Carolina

Obviously, these states are still too close to call, but Trump now is tied or enjoys small leads in all eight of them. Continue Reading

Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“It’s over. Trump can’t win.” That’s the narrative the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media have relentlessly promoted over the past several days. The problem with that narrative is that it is a bald-faced lie. This election is nowhere near over. Not even close!

Let’s take a look at the electoral map. Remember, to become the next president of the United States, Trump needs to win 270 electoral votes. Conversely, he needs to hold Hillary Clinton to 269 electoral votes because, with a Republican House of Representatives, a 269-269 tie is likely to also result in a Trump presidency.

Trump’s baseline amount of electoral votes is 158. Let’s assume Clinton’s baseline is 239 — we will generously cede her Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), and three of Maine’s four electoral votes.

If this is a fixed reality, Trump must win the following states to get to 265 electoral votes (ordered from easiest to win to most difficult):

Utah

Utah just became a battleground state as Independent candidate Evan McMullin has been surging recently. It truly is a three-way race at the present. The most recent poll, conducted on October 23 and 24 by Heat Street/Rasmussen, gave Trump a narrow 32-29-28 lead over McMullin and Clinton, respectively.

Georgia

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Read the full article at Townhall.com.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project. Continue Reading

Could Trump and Clinton Really Finish in a Tie? It’s Possible…

A couple weeks ago, I wrote about the Electoral College and how Donald Trump could stop Hillary Clinton from winning 270 electoral votes.

The implied assumption from my piece was that Trump would automatically win by stopping Clinton. Of course, that’s not necessarily true — I left out an obvious outcome. What if nobody wins? What if neither candidate reaches 270 electoral votes?

There are two main ways this could happen:

1.) Libertarian Gary Johnson wins a state (or two) and throws off the electoral map.

This seemed like a more likely outcome in July and August. It’s little more than a pipe dream now. Johnson will almost assuredly be excluded from the presidential debates. His poll numbers continue to slowly decline, now hovering in the high single digits. Johnson supporters often tout Utah and New Mexico as states he could potentially win, but he is still losing badly in both places. A recent poll out of Utah gave Trump a 39-24-13 lead over Clinton and Johnson, respectively, and a New Mexico poll from late August gave Clinton a 40-31-16 lead, with Johnson trailing Clinton by 24.

Gary Johnson is not going to win a state. No way. But what if he did?

Map via 270towin.com

 

If Johnson manages to win Utah (six electoral votes assumed for Trump) and New Mexico (five electoral votes assumed for Clinton), in a neck and neck race where the battleground states fall in a certain fashion, a “nobody wins” scenario is possible.

2.) Trump and Clinton finish in a 269-269 electoral tie.

Continue Reading

Gary Johnson Is Surging — No, Seriously

Last month, I publicly wrote off Gary Johnson, the pro-abortion, anti-religious freedom Libertarian candidate. I didn’t think he’d have much of an impact. I may have been wrong.

According to two new polls, Gary Johnson appears to be the real deal.

My reaction:

But in all seriousness, in a Gravis poll of Utah voters, Johnson received 16 percent of the vote, trailing Donald Trump (29 percent) and Hillary Clinton (26 percent). Utah, remember, is a red state that really does not like Trump. Johnson is a relative unknown compared to the other two candidates, but with 29 percent undecided, one could easily make the case that he could win Utah and its six electoral votes.

But Johnson’s surge isn’t limited to Utah. In the latest IBD/TIPP national poll, Johnson received 11 percent of the vote. Obviously this is impressive for a third party candidate, and it really speaks to how unpopular Trump and Clinton are.

We will see if this is a brief bump for Johnson or the beginning of a permanent base of #NeverTrump/#NeverHillary voters. Johnson should do everything he can to get to 15 percent nationally. If he manages that, he will reach the threshold to be included in nationally televised presidential debates.

If he can get that type of national attention, raise money, and build a real grassroots coalition, Johnson may end up impacting this election after all. If states like Utah are really in play, he could manage to win a few electoral votes, which hasn’t happened for a third party candidate since George Wallace in 1968. Continue Reading