New Poll: Is Trump Likely to Win North Carolina?

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

The new Elon University poll may have bad news for Hillary Clinton: With just a week to go, she and Donald Trump are in a virtual dead heat, 42 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent of North Carolina voters still undecided. But when pressed, the undecideds favor Trump 27 percent to 18 percent.

Meanwhile despite massive spending against him by the LGBT lobby, among others, including a series of video ads from Lennie and Pearl, the new poll shows Gov. Pat McCrory and Roy Cooper are dead even at 44 percent apiece. Cooper and McCrory are both holding their own party members (89 percent and 91 percent, respectively) while independents are tilting to McCrory, 54 percent to 46 percent.

Sen. Richard Burr has pulled out a  slim lead over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross, 43.5 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics average has Clinton up by 2 points, Cooper up by 3 points, and Burr up by 0.8 points.

It’s coming down to the wire on this one.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

New Poll Confirms McCrory’s Lead Over Cooper

North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (photo credit: NCDOTcommunications via Flickr, CC BY 2.0)

For weeks, polls have shown Democrat Roy Cooper leading North Carolina’s Gov. Pat McCrory. But a September 11-12 Civitas poll found McCrory had fought his way back to a two-point lead. Pundits began saying opposition to all things transgender was a political death knell.

Now, a second new poll from Elon University of 644 likely voters surveyed from September 12-16 confirms that McCrory leads Cooper by 2.7 percentage points: 48.7 percent to 46 percent, as independents break strongly for him.  This poll was taken after the NCAA decided to strip the “March Madness” games from Greensboro, N.C., as punishment for the state passing HB 2.

Its also notable that McCrory is outpolling incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr, who is one point behind Democrat Deborah Ross in his race to retain his Senate seat. Burr has refused to support or oppose HB 2. “Burr has held a lead over Ross in many polls, including a 4-point lead in our last April poll of registered voters. That Burr has fallen in this poll while McCrory has risen is a surprise to us,” admit the Elon pollsters.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading