On Friday, we broke down the Electoral College and proposed several different scenarios where Trump could win the presidency. He needs to perform well in 12 key battleground states.
Iowa and Virginia are two of those states. And according to a new pair of Emerson polls, Trump is winning in Iowa and virtually tied in Virginia.
- Emerson (Iowa, 8/31 – 9/1): Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 8 (Trump +5)
- Emerson (Virginia, 8/31 – 9/1): Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 11 (Clinton +1)
That being said, we should probably curb our enthusiasm. Trump still has a lot of work to do in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, according to a pair of CBS News/YouGov surveys.
- CBS News/YouGov (Pennsylvania, 8/30 – 9/2): Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 6 (Clinton +8)
- CBS News/YouGov (North Carolina, 8/30 – 9/2): Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 4 (Clinton +4)
But assuming Trump can manage a turnaround in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the importance of also winning Virginia, a state many pundits have already written off for the GOP, can’t be overstated. If Trump manages to win these four states, that would put the Electoral College count at 214-208 in favor of Clinton with eight battleground states undecided: Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Missouri (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Florida (29).
In that scenario, Trump would have to be seen as a favorite.
Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project.