Nine Takeaways from Super Tuesday 3

Donald Trump speaks in Reno, Nev. (photo credit: Darron Birgenheier via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0)

March 15th or Super Tuesday 3 (I originally called it Super Tuesday 2, but apparently March 8th was “super” as well) was a good night for Donald Trump. He won every state that he led the polls in. He wracked up lots of delegates and took one step closer to the GOP nomination for president.  It was an incredibly bad night for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who, after losing his home state of Florida, badly, suspended his campaign. Ohio Governor John Kasich came in second tonight in terms of delegates, but still finds himself trailing far behind the other candidates.

Here are the results:

Florida Primary – 99% reporting (99 Delegates)

  1. Donald Trump – 45.8% (1,075,505) – 99 delegates
  2. Marco Rubio – 27.0% (635,219)
  3. Ted Cruz – 17.1% (402,632)
  4. John Kasich – 6.8% (159,039)

Ohio Primary – 99% reporting (66 Delegates)

  1. John Kasich – 46.8% (953,646) – 66 delegates
  2. Donald Trump – 35.7% (726,611)
  3. Ted Cruz – 13.1% (266,905)
  4. Marco Rubio – 2.9% (59,215)

North Carolina – 100% reporting (72 Delegates)

  1. Donald Trump – 40.2% (458,117) – 29 delegates
  2. Ted Cruz – 36.8% (418,628) – 26 delegates
  3. John Kasich – 12.7% (144,289) – 9 delegates
  4. Marco Rubio – 7.7% (87,852) – 5 delegates

Three delegates still have not been allocated yet.

Illinois Primary – 99% reporting (69 Delegates)

  1. Donald Trump – 38.8% (548,528) – 24 delegates
  2. Ted Cruz – 30.3% (428,363)
  3. John Kasich – 19.7% (278,224)
  4. Marco Rubio – 8.7% (122,206)

45 delegates still need to be allocated, based on Congressional District vote and direct delegate elections. Continue Reading

Why Illinois and Missouri Matter Today

Photo credit: Tom Arthur via Flickr (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

Florida and Ohio have carried much of the attention over Super Tuesday II because of their 165 winner-take-all delegates. But Illinois and Missouri, with 121 delegates between them, could turn them into swing states.

A RealClearPolitics piece today notes their vital importance to the consolidation in the Republican Primary:

The Republican primaries Tuesday in Ohio and Florida have been the focus of most candidates and the media, but two other contests, in Illinois and Missouri, could be just as pivotal to Donald Trump’s march toward the nomination or its demise.

[…]

Trump leads in both states, but Sen. Ted Cruz has identified them as potentially fertile ground for his campaign, adjusting his recent schedule accordingly.

It seems a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are likely to split the majority of North Carolina’s 72 delegates.

Florida’s 99 delegates, though, are likely go to Trump:

Mr. Trump is poised to trounce the first-term senator in Florida, with polls showing the businessman maintaining a lead of about 20 percentage points.

“Florida is do or die for the Rubio campaign, but it looks like victory may have slipped from his grasp,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, whose own pre-election survey Monday showed Mr. Trump up 44 percent to 27 percent over Mr. Rubio.

Ohio, scored by Quinnipiac, is still a toss-up between Trump and Ohio Governor John Kasich:

Ohio is a real contest on both sides. Trump and Gov.

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Why I Hope Trump Wins Ohio and Florida Tonight

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Here’s my contrarian thought for the day: our only shot at beating Donald Trump is for Trump to win both Ohio and Florida today.

I know. I know. Everyone has been filling your head with Mitt Romney’s anti-Cruz fantasy: we can direct voters to vote in this state or that state strategically. Because the GOP establishment and/or its losing last choice for the nomination has that much power and authority over voters. Because our hope is to keep a divided race going with particular candidates picking off one state or another, starting with their home state.

Tonight’s vote is going to explode that fantasy. If it can be exploded. Marco Rubio’s and John Kasich’s persistence in this race despite a record of almost unbroken electoral failure has been just remarkable in its faith-based unfalsifiable theories about how they can win. Each vows to continue even if they lose. We will see. Kasich may pull out a victory in Ohio. I hope not, because then he will try to pretend that winning his home state is some kind of tremendous victory, stay in and continue to divide the anti-Trump vote.

The untold story of this election is why the Republican Party has refused to coalesce around the one outsider candidate who has shown he can beat Trump and who does not issue racist-sounding statements on a regular basis, use curse words, or discuss his private parts on national TV, and who has never ever given money to Hillary Clinton. Continue Reading

Romney Campaigns for Kasich

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Not that he has endorsed John Kasich officially, but Mitt Romney showed up in Ohio and did everything but:

The 2012 Republican nominee for president, campaigning for the first time since his blistering anti-endorsement of Donald Trump, arrived at an airplane museum in Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s campaign bus. As Kasich mugged, Romney grinned and waved and the bus rolled up to the backdrop — fighter jet, helicopter, “Patton”-size American flag — where the two would hold a town-hall meeting.

“You’re the ones who are going to decide if he becomes the next president of the United States,” Romney said. “You look at this guy, and unlike the other people running, he has a real track record. He has the kind of record that you want in Washington. That’s why I’m convinced that you’re going to do the right thing tomorrow.”

The latest poll has Kasich up by 5 points over Donald Trump in his home state.

UPDATE: He didn’t use the e-word, but The Washington Times is reporting Romney just endorsed Kasich:

Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, endorsed Mr. Kasich on Monday, saying the Ohio governor is the right candidate to stop Mr. Trump and take the helm of the party.

“You look at this guy and, unlike the other people running, he has a real track record. He has the kind of record that you want in Washington, and that is why I am convinced you are going to do the right thing tomorrow — agreed?” Mr.

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By the Numbers: Super Tuesday II

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Donald Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

The 2016 GOP primary has three major “Super Tuesdays.” Super Tuesday I was on March 1st, where 632 delegates were awarded — more than a quarter of all delegates.

Super Tuesday II is tomorrow on March 15th. There are 367 delegates up for grabs in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina.

Super Tuesday III may end up being pivotal. It will take place on June 7, when five states, including California, will determine the first ballot votes of 303 delegates.

Will tomorrow prove to be “Super Tuesday, Episode II: The Establishment Strikes Back”? Probably not. A cursory look at the delegate math makes it look more like “Revenge of the Trump.”

As it currently stands, the delegate race appears close. Remember, a candidate needs 1,237 delegates to clinch the nomination.

  • Donald Trump: 460
  • Ted Cruz: 370
  • Marco Rubio: 163
  • John Kasich: 63

But tomorrow might change those numbers drastically.

Florida  99 Delegates, Winner Take All

Florida is pretty straightforward. Whoever wins gets all 99 delegates.

Trump has a commanding lead in Florida over Rubio. The last 5 polls (via RealClearPolitics) show Trump leading over Rubio 46-22, 44-21, 43-22, 44-21, and 43-24, with Cruz and Kasich lagging right behind.

If Trump lost Florida, it would be the biggest upset in polling history. It’s just not going to happen.

  • Prediction: Trump +99 delegates.

Ohio  66 Delegates, Winner Take All

Like Florida, Ohio is a winner take all state.

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Erick Erickson: The Deal Is Done

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Erick Erickson just came out with a great piece. Clearly a deal is in place.

Via The Resurgent:

Jeb Bush has a private meeting with Kasich, Cruz, and Rubio.

Cruz’s campaign, after a lot of bluster about going all in in Florida admits it was all a head fake. They had one event scheduled for today with Sean Hannity in Orlando that was previously scheduled and will be nationally focused, not Florida focused. Then Cruz is bailing on Florida. For the Rubio folks complaining, I’m told the campaign did try to make adjustments, but couldn’t for reasons not in the campaign’s control.

Cruz’s campaign takes down its Florida ads. The Cruz Super PACs follow suit allegedly — at least some of them have signaled they too are getting out.

Marco Rubio revs up his Florida presence and is nowhere to be found in Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina.

The Cruz campaign redirects all its resources to those three states, with Cruz rallies, ad buys, GOTV etc.

Now Rubio’s spokesman goes on national television and says Rubio supporters should vote for John Kasich in Ohio.

Kasich is going all in in Ohio and ceding Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina to Cruz. In fact, Kasich suddenly has no events in Illinois, and only one event in Pennsylvania after the Ohio primary.

In other words, Kasich is now only campaigning in Ohio; Rubio is only campaigning in Florida; and Cruz is avoiding events in Florida and Ohio.

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