How Ben Carson Quietly Helped Trump Dominate New York

Dr. Ben Carson (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Despite officially suspending his campaign at CPAC in March, Ben Carson had a major impact on Tuesday’s New York primary. Even after his endorsement of Donald Trump, Carson has recently made statements that some have interpreted as pro-Cruz sentiments. However, after Tuesday’s primary, Carson has effectively laid to rest any doubts about his loyalty to Trump.

New York’s system of awarding delegates hinges on gaining a majority in each of its 27 congressional districts, as well as statewide. Thus, having fewer candidates in the race makes it significantly easier for a single candidate to win all of the delegates at stake. If no candidate receives 50 percent in a district, the delegates are proportionally awarded to candidates who received over 20 percent. For Trump, it was crucial that he win as many of the 95 delegates at stake as he possibly could, and with a little help from Ben Carson, Trump exceeded expectations.

Heading into Tuesday’s primary, four candidates were slated to appear on New York’s GOP ballot: Donald Trump, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson. Carson had missed the deadline to have his name stricken from the ballot. However, Carson sent a last minute letter to the N.Y. Board of Elections requesting that his votes not be counted toward his campaign. The request was granted by the Board of Elections, and all of the votes for Carson were voided.

This move by Carson undoubtedly made it easier for Trump to gain a 50-percent-plus-1 majority in many of N.Y.’s congressional districts. Continue Reading

Kasich Touts Electability — As He Continues to Lose Elections

Following Ted Cruz’s distant third place finish in New York, John Kasich triumphantly tweeted yesterday:

In reality, there are quite a few mathematical differences between Cruz and Kasich. Cruz has around 400 more delegates, for example, and more than twice as many votes. Ted Cruz has won 10 contests; John Kasich has won one. Of the 36 or so primary and caucus votes to date, John Kasich has finished last in 15 of them, and worse than last three times. He received no votes in the Virgin Islands, was trounced by “Others” in Puerto Rico, and lost to the ghost of Marco Rubio in Arizona, a week after Rubio dropped out of the race. In fact, Kasich is still losing to Rubio a month later, trailing in both delegate count and number of votes. He might not even catch up by the end of April.

Nevertheless, Kasich is trying very hard to brand himself as the “electable” candidate without winning elections, but it’s difficult to buy that the electable candidate in this race is the one who, more often than not, did worse than Ben Carson. It’s even harder to accept the notion that Republicans should nominate somebody they don’t like because maybe the other side will like him more.

But if there were any region of the country in which Kasich should be able to prove his point, it’s the Northeast, the only region of the country outside D.C. Continue Reading

Is This a New and Improved Donald Trump?

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

If you watched Donald Trump’s victory speech last night in New York, you witnessed a pretty rare sighting these days: a presidential candidate acting presidential. Of all the candidates that I thought I would be calling presidential, Mr. Trump was not one of them.

Tuesday evening after the New York primary, Trump Tower was packed with supporters and media awaiting another disastrously boisterous and egocentric victory speech from the GOP candidate. Instead, they were welcomed with a Donald Trump who was cool, calm and, dare I say, classy.

Mr. Trump recently hired a new team to help him with his media and public relations, and it is certainly showing. He entered the room to accept his victory to the sound of Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York.” He greeted guests and supporters with humility and gratitude.

Instead of ripping his opponents to shreds or listing off the people he’d like to see moved out of the country, he kept his speech short, sweet, and to-the-point, and even seemed annoyed when his speech was interrupted by a loud and rowdy crowd. He didn’t mention Lyin’ Ted or his least favorite person, Hillary Clinton. He thanked his family and campaign staff and poured his heart out to the state of New York. He didn’t fail to throw some shade at the media, however. They’ve been calling out his campaign for constantly throwing people out and bringing new people in, but Donald Trump referred to his team as “evolving.” His team has definitely evolved, and they have brought us a new and improved candidate to stand behind. Continue Reading

Donald Trump Wins New York. What Now?

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and Donald Trump

Last night, Donald Trump won New York in emphatic fashion. Not only did he win with more than 60 percent of the vote, but according to current results, he managed to win 90 of 95 delegates in the state, exceeding even the most optimistic of expectations. John Kasich won the other 5 delegates, and Ted Cruz won zero.

After several bad nights in a row, Trump is back to being a winner. So will New York help him get to the magic number of 1,237 delegates?

Here’s where we stand currently:

Pre-New York Delegate Count (via RealClearPolitics):

  • Donald Trump: 756
  • Ted Cruz: 559
  • John Kasich: 144

Updated Delegate Count:

  • Donald Trump: 846
  • Ted Cruz: 559
  • John Kasich: 149

Trump needs just 391 delegates to hit the magic number. There are 664 delegates remaining. That means he needs to win 59 percent of them to secure the nomination. Can he do it?

It’s certainly not impossible, but he would need an impressive showing next Tuesday. Five states vote on Tuesday — Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. 172 delegates are up for grabs.

Here’s how it will go down:

Connecticut (28 delegates)

Connecticut awards 15 delegates winner-take-all by congressional district (3 delegates from each of 5 districts), and awards its remaining 13 at-large delegates proportionally, unless one candidate wins a true majority (50 percent + one) of the popular vote.

That’s complex, so I’ll give you a couple examples. Continue Reading

How Many New York Delegates Will Trump Win Tonight? (VIDEO)

Frank Cannon is president of the American Principles Project and a respected conservative political strategist with over 30 years of experience.

I think the interesting thing in politics is the degree to which Trump has kept alive the possibility to get to 1,237 delegates. I think that he has a strong chance of winning 85 or more delegates tonight in New York. And if he does that and continues to run as strong as he appears to be in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, I think the key to whether he gets to 1,237 will be how he does in Indiana. If he’s able to break through in the Midwest, then I think his surge in California will be confirmed, and I think there is a reasonable chance he gets within 40 delegates to actually hitting the number of needed delegates — 1,237 — before the convention. And I think his chances of making a deal if he’s able to do that go up considerably. So watch tonight to see if he gets to 85 delegates, and then watch to see how he does in Indiana, because that will be a pivotal race with a lot of delegates where Cruz is intending to stop him the way he has done in Wisconsin, Iowa, and other states in the Midwest.

Continue Reading

Trump Could Win All of New York’s 95 Delegates

Rumors of Donald Trump’s demise may have been greatly exaggerated.

After several weeks of bad news stories — and bad results in Wisconsin, Colorado, and Wyoming — Trump is poised to get back to his winning ways next Tuesday, April 19th, with New York’s GOP primary. According to a new poll from NY1/Baruch College, Trump leads in New York with 60 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz and John Kasich both trail substantially, with 17 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

Map of New York state congressional districts (Source)

 

A total of 95 delegates are up for grabs in New York. Here’s how they will be allocated:

  • 14 delegates go to the overall winner of the statewide popular vote.
  • 81 delegates are assigned by congressional district, with each of New York’s 27 congressional districts receiving 3 delegates.
  • If a candidate wins a congressional district with more than 50 percent of the vote, he wins all three delegates.
  • If a candidate wins a congressional district with less than 50 percent of the vote, and another candidate manages to earn more than 20 percent, two delegates go to the winner and one delegate goes to the candidate who finishes second.
  • If a candidate wins a congressional district with less than 50 percent of the vote, but no other candidate eclipses 20 percent, he wins all 3 delegates.

Confusing? Not really. There are only three remaining candidates, which means that it will be virtually impossible for Trump to finish below 50 percent in a congressional district without another candidate breaking 20 percent, barring a barrage of Jeb Bush protest votes.

Continue Reading

My Prediction: Trump Won’t Break 1,000 Delegates

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Donald Trump is headed to victory in New York, but the question is: can he can break the 50 percent barrier? I think not because lately he’s been underperforming his polls.

But looking ahead, things start to get really tough for Trump, who continues to face massive resistance for a front runner and who has refused to invest in an actual campaign infrastructure to fight for delegates.

Two polls show Trump ahead in California and Maryland (by 7 and 10 points, respectively), but Trump is polling at only 39 percent in California and 40 percent in Maryland.

Meanwhile, the rich delegate pile in Pennsylvania (where Trump is also at 39 percent, 9 points ahead of Ted Cruz, who typically outperforms his polls by around 5 percentage points) is going to depend on getting voters to vote not for your name in the primary but for the delegates who will actually vote in the convention, and whose names are not matched with any candidates on the ballot.

Who would bet against Cruz pulling off the massive share of actual delegates in Pennsylvania? Trump will threaten to sue, again. But the delegates will vote for Cruz.

It’s a messy system, but nobody has ever had a Pennsylvania GOP presidential primary vote that mattered. Winning requires more than appearing on TV for free. Trump has exhausted that strategy. He’s going to see diminishing returns — yes, even in New York.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

New Polls: Cruz Surging in Wisconsin, Trump Trouncing in N.Y. and Pennsylvania

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Donald Trump

The latest poll shows Ted Cruz is up by 6 points in Wisconsin, a winner-take-all primary on Tuesday. And Donald Trump’s terribly bad week — attacking Heidi Cruz, wriggling around on abortion, attacking Scott Walker for balancing the budget without raising taxes, and assorted policy missteps — appears to be hurting him in a national poll.

For the first time in a month, Trump dipped below 40 percent of GOP voters, down to 38 percent in the latest Investor’s Business Daily poll, just 7 points ahead of Cruz.

But there was some good news for Trump in the northeast. He is close to 50 percent in Pennsylvania (47 percent), with Cruz and John Kasich splitting the un-Trump vote, and, despite a bad week, he is still over 50 percent in New York (52 percent), with the same Cruz and Kasich split giving him a massive double digit lead.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

New Poll: N.Y. Republicans Love Trump

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

The latest polls make it clear that Donald Trump is zooming to a victory among Republicans in New York, with the latest Quinnipiac poll showing him leading by 36 points at over 50 percent.

That same poll, however, shows Hillary Clinton crushing Trump in the general election, 53 percent to 33 percent.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

New York Poll: Trump Crushing Cruz by 52 Points

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Donald Trump

New Yorkers clearly heart the Donald.

new Emerson poll of New York Republican voters shows Trump crushing Ted Cruz, 64 percent to 12 percent, with just 1 percent for John Kasich.

But when it comes to November? New York breaks for Hillary Clinton over Trump, 55 percent to 36 percent.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading