Why Is No One Talking About This Swing State?

Photo credit: Ron Cogswell via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

Don’t look now, but in the last few weeks the electoral map has shifted significantly in favor of Donald Trump.

Paul Dupont wrote here yesterday about Trump’s updated path to victory and how he currently needs only one more state to push him over the top. And at FiveThirtyEight today, Nate Silver made a similar argument, just in reverse, writing that Hillary Clinton’s electoral map has shrunken to give her one — but only one — “really good” path to victory, which involves her winning every state she is currently leading in. If even one of those states moves toward Trump, however, it will result in Clinton having “a total mess on her hands.”

Both Dupont and Silver identify many of the same swing states most likely to defect from the Clinton column: New Hampshire, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. However, I think they both overlook one key state which could be poised to take everyone by surprise: New Mexico.

Why New Mexico? For one, although it doesn’t show up in the RealClearPolitics’ average, the most recent polling data from Reuters/Ipsos shows Trump leading by five points over Clinton in New Mexico, while a Morning Consult poll from earlier this month has Trump trailing by only one point in a four-way race. Furthermore, many pundits forget that while President Obama has won New Mexico in the last two presidential elections, Republicans took the state by a slim margin in 2004. Continue Reading

Could Trump and Clinton Really Finish in a Tie? It’s Possible…

A couple weeks ago, I wrote about the Electoral College and how Donald Trump could stop Hillary Clinton from winning 270 electoral votes.

The implied assumption from my piece was that Trump would automatically win by stopping Clinton. Of course, that’s not necessarily true — I left out an obvious outcome. What if nobody wins? What if neither candidate reaches 270 electoral votes?

There are two main ways this could happen:

1.) Libertarian Gary Johnson wins a state (or two) and throws off the electoral map.

This seemed like a more likely outcome in July and August. It’s little more than a pipe dream now. Johnson will almost assuredly be excluded from the presidential debates. His poll numbers continue to slowly decline, now hovering in the high single digits. Johnson supporters often tout Utah and New Mexico as states he could potentially win, but he is still losing badly in both places. A recent poll out of Utah gave Trump a 39-24-13 lead over Clinton and Johnson, respectively, and a New Mexico poll from late August gave Clinton a 40-31-16 lead, with Johnson trailing Clinton by 24.

Gary Johnson is not going to win a state. No way. But what if he did?

Map via 270towin.com

 

If Johnson manages to win Utah (six electoral votes assumed for Trump) and New Mexico (five electoral votes assumed for Clinton), in a neck and neck race where the battleground states fall in a certain fashion, a “nobody wins” scenario is possible.

2.) Trump and Clinton finish in a 269-269 electoral tie.

Continue Reading

New Mexico Education Official Admits High Schoolers Dissected Aborted Babies’ Brains

Photo credit: Quinn Dombrowski via Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0)

The New Mexico Alliance for Life released a shocking video of a University of New Mexico official confessing that UNM professors illegally obtained aborted babies’ brains and had high school students at a summer camp dissect them.

Dr. Paul Roth, chancellor of the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center and dean of the School of Medicine, was questioned about the incident and confirmed that fetal brain tissue was used in these dissections.

“Yes, we had a faculty member who obtained some tissue, and during one of these summer workshops, uh, dissected I think one or two fetal brains,” Roth said.

Using fetal tissue from aborted children clearly violates New Mexico’s Jonathan Spradling Revised Uniform Anatomical Gift Act, which prohibits using such tissue in medical research.

Investigations into UNM’s usage of aborted babies’ body parts have uncovered an illicit relationship between the university and regional abortion clinics.

Pro-life activists have, in the past, secured consent forms from Southwestern Women’s Options — a regional abortion clinic — that included a box to check to consent to the use of aborted fetuses’ tissue in medical experiments.

Earlier this summer, a Select Investigative Panel from the House of Representatives sent a letter to the Attorney General of New Mexico, referring UNM and SWWO for criminal charges.

“Through its investigation,” the letter stated, “the Panel has discovered that personnel within UNM’s hospital and medical school have aggressively engaged in expanding abortion in New Mexico through the offices, personnel, and resources of UNM.”

Further into the 291-page-long letter, the Select Panel reveals evidence that SWWO has a special contract to be the “sole provider of aborted infant tissue to the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center.” In addition, the Select Panel uncovered that UNM provided substantial benefits and faculty status to abortionists at SWWO clinics, and provided doctors for SWWO-affiliated abortion clinics. Continue Reading