Do Churchgoers Vote for Trump?

Photo via Wikimedia Commons

There’s been a lot of talk of evangelical support for Donald Trump, and it’s true Trump has just about swept South including North Carolina earlier this week.

But in Missouri, where Trump beat Ted Cruz by the narrowest of margins, the exit polls for the first time asked voters about their church attendance and not just their religious affiliation.

It shows what many of us have suspected: a massive rebellion against Trump among Christians who actually attend religious services regularly.

Among those who show up at church once a week or more, Cruz crushed Trump, 55 percent to 32 percent according to the exit poll.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to win even in Missouri, where Cruz lost by an agonizingly narrow margin.

This dynamic may explain other oddities popping up in various exit polls, like the fact that even when Trump wins voters who make less than $50,000 and more than $100,000, Cruz wins among those making $50k-100k a year — an awful lot of married families with children in that slot.

Or that Cruz is winning the college educated — who are also more likely to be married and churchgoers.

The most religious voters are having the hardest time accepting Trump. Makes sense.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

Nine Takeaways from Super Tuesday 3

Donald Trump speaks in Reno, Nev. (photo credit: Darron Birgenheier via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0)

March 15th or Super Tuesday 3 (I originally called it Super Tuesday 2, but apparently March 8th was “super” as well) was a good night for Donald Trump. He won every state that he led the polls in. He wracked up lots of delegates and took one step closer to the GOP nomination for president.  It was an incredibly bad night for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who, after losing his home state of Florida, badly, suspended his campaign. Ohio Governor John Kasich came in second tonight in terms of delegates, but still finds himself trailing far behind the other candidates.

Here are the results:

Florida Primary – 99% reporting (99 Delegates)

  1. Donald Trump – 45.8% (1,075,505) – 99 delegates
  2. Marco Rubio – 27.0% (635,219)
  3. Ted Cruz – 17.1% (402,632)
  4. John Kasich – 6.8% (159,039)

Ohio Primary – 99% reporting (66 Delegates)

  1. John Kasich – 46.8% (953,646) – 66 delegates
  2. Donald Trump – 35.7% (726,611)
  3. Ted Cruz – 13.1% (266,905)
  4. Marco Rubio – 2.9% (59,215)

North Carolina – 100% reporting (72 Delegates)

  1. Donald Trump – 40.2% (458,117) – 29 delegates
  2. Ted Cruz – 36.8% (418,628) – 26 delegates
  3. John Kasich – 12.7% (144,289) – 9 delegates
  4. Marco Rubio – 7.7% (87,852) – 5 delegates

Three delegates still have not been allocated yet.

Illinois Primary – 99% reporting (69 Delegates)

  1. Donald Trump – 38.8% (548,528) – 24 delegates
  2. Ted Cruz – 30.3% (428,363)
  3. John Kasich – 19.7% (278,224)
  4. Marco Rubio – 8.7% (122,206)

45 delegates still need to be allocated, based on Congressional District vote and direct delegate elections. Continue Reading

Why Illinois and Missouri Matter Today

Photo credit: Tom Arthur via Flickr (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

Florida and Ohio have carried much of the attention over Super Tuesday II because of their 165 winner-take-all delegates. But Illinois and Missouri, with 121 delegates between them, could turn them into swing states.

A RealClearPolitics piece today notes their vital importance to the consolidation in the Republican Primary:

The Republican primaries Tuesday in Ohio and Florida have been the focus of most candidates and the media, but two other contests, in Illinois and Missouri, could be just as pivotal to Donald Trump’s march toward the nomination or its demise.

[…]

Trump leads in both states, but Sen. Ted Cruz has identified them as potentially fertile ground for his campaign, adjusting his recent schedule accordingly.

It seems a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are likely to split the majority of North Carolina’s 72 delegates.

Florida’s 99 delegates, though, are likely go to Trump:

Mr. Trump is poised to trounce the first-term senator in Florida, with polls showing the businessman maintaining a lead of about 20 percentage points.

“Florida is do or die for the Rubio campaign, but it looks like victory may have slipped from his grasp,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, whose own pre-election survey Monday showed Mr. Trump up 44 percent to 27 percent over Mr. Rubio.

Ohio, scored by Quinnipiac, is still a toss-up between Trump and Ohio Governor John Kasich:

Ohio is a real contest on both sides. Trump and Gov.

Continue Reading

By the Numbers: Super Tuesday II

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Donald Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

The 2016 GOP primary has three major “Super Tuesdays.” Super Tuesday I was on March 1st, where 632 delegates were awarded — more than a quarter of all delegates.

Super Tuesday II is tomorrow on March 15th. There are 367 delegates up for grabs in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina.

Super Tuesday III may end up being pivotal. It will take place on June 7, when five states, including California, will determine the first ballot votes of 303 delegates.

Will tomorrow prove to be “Super Tuesday, Episode II: The Establishment Strikes Back”? Probably not. A cursory look at the delegate math makes it look more like “Revenge of the Trump.”

As it currently stands, the delegate race appears close. Remember, a candidate needs 1,237 delegates to clinch the nomination.

  • Donald Trump: 460
  • Ted Cruz: 370
  • Marco Rubio: 163
  • John Kasich: 63

But tomorrow might change those numbers drastically.

Florida  99 Delegates, Winner Take All

Florida is pretty straightforward. Whoever wins gets all 99 delegates.

Trump has a commanding lead in Florida over Rubio. The last 5 polls (via RealClearPolitics) show Trump leading over Rubio 46-22, 44-21, 43-22, 44-21, and 43-24, with Cruz and Kasich lagging right behind.

If Trump lost Florida, it would be the biggest upset in polling history. It’s just not going to happen.

  • Prediction: Trump +99 delegates.

Ohio  66 Delegates, Winner Take All

Like Florida, Ohio is a winner take all state.

Continue Reading

First Missouri Poll: Trump Ahead of Cruz By Just Seven Points

From left: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Donald Trump

The very first poll out of Missouri, which votes on Tuesday, has just been released, and it confirms Ted Cruz is breathing down Donald Trump’s neck — he sits just seven points behind the front runner, 36 percent to 29 percent (which is within the poll’s margin of error). Marco Rubio and John Kasich are in single digits.

If the late deciders break against Trump, as has been happening, this looks like a possible pickup for Cruz.

The Midwest, not the South, is turning out to be Cruz country. Trump is having trouble picking up more than a third of the vote in states like Michigan and Kansas. They like their politicians to talk decently, at a minimum, it seems.

However, if the field remains divided, one-third may still be enough for Trump.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading