Six Days Left: Trump Has a Lot of Outs

When poker players are drawing to a straight or a flush, they will often talk about having a certain number of “outs” — i.e. how many cards are left in the deck that can make their hand, allowing them to win the pot.

Donald Trump doesn’t have a winning hand yet, but he has a lot of outs.

Last Thursday night, we wrote at Townhall about Donald Trump’s easier-than-you-think path to 270 electoral votes. We explained that Trump could get to 265 by winning Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. At the time, this still seemed like a somewhat daunting task, albeit one that was within the realm of possibility.

But now? Well, Trump’s lot has improved significantly in these states since Thursday night, as Hillary Clinton’s lead appears to be fading fast:

Utah

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +5.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +6.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +0.2%

Georgia

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +2.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +5.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.9%

Iowa

Ohio

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +1.1%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.3%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.2%

Arizona

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.5%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +4.5%

Florida

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.6%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +0.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.1%

Nevada

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +2.0%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +1.6%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +3.6%

North Carolina

Obviously, these states are still too close to call, but Trump now is tied or enjoys small leads in all eight of them. Continue Reading

Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“It’s over. Trump can’t win.” That’s the narrative the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media have relentlessly promoted over the past several days. The problem with that narrative is that it is a bald-faced lie. This election is nowhere near over. Not even close!

Let’s take a look at the electoral map. Remember, to become the next president of the United States, Trump needs to win 270 electoral votes. Conversely, he needs to hold Hillary Clinton to 269 electoral votes because, with a Republican House of Representatives, a 269-269 tie is likely to also result in a Trump presidency.

Trump’s baseline amount of electoral votes is 158. Let’s assume Clinton’s baseline is 239 — we will generously cede her Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), and three of Maine’s four electoral votes.

If this is a fixed reality, Trump must win the following states to get to 265 electoral votes (ordered from easiest to win to most difficult):

Utah

Utah just became a battleground state as Independent candidate Evan McMullin has been surging recently. It truly is a three-way race at the present. The most recent poll, conducted on October 23 and 24 by Heat Street/Rasmussen, gave Trump a narrow 32-29-28 lead over McMullin and Clinton, respectively.

Georgia

[…]

Read the full article at Townhall.com.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project. Continue Reading

The Five Battleground States Trump Needs to Win

The media has grown obsessed with driving the narrative that Hillary Clinton has this election in the bag. Supposedly, according to our elite overlords, this election is so over. You might as well stay home!

But when you analyze the data, placed in context, especially on a state-by-state basis, this narrative reveals itself to be ridiculous. The presidential race is still very close. It’s not over yet.

Some pollsters say Clinton is up double digits. Others say the race is a virtual tie. The stark differences can be chalked up to differing turnout models: Will Democrats turn out for Hillary Clinton like they did for Barack Obama, as many of these models that show Clinton up double digits presume? Or will Donald Trump add new voters to Romney’s insufficient 2012 coalition and surprise with a victory? It’s hard to tell.

But regardless, national polling numbers matter little. The electoral college determines the next president. So for that, we look to state polling numbers.

And state polling has been very close.

Remember, for Trump to become president, he just needs to deny Hillary Clinton a victory and get to an electoral tie, 269-269, at which point the House of Representatives would pick a president, and presumably, the Republican House would pick Trump.

Here are the top five battleground states Trump needs to win to make that happen:

5.) Florida and Ohio

Okay, maybe I meant top six. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins without winning Florida (29 electoral votes) and Ohio (18). Continue Reading

Will Churches in Massachusetts Be Forced to Comply with Transgenderism?

Massachusetts State House entrance in Boston, Mass. (photo credit: Matt Kieffer via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0)

Two months ago, a major controversy erupted in Iowa over religious liberty and “gender identity” when the state’s Civil Rights Commission put forward guidelines threatening churches which did not conform to the new transgender ideology. According to the Commission, all “non-religious activities” occurring at a church are subject to a new interpretation of Iowa’s Civil Rights Act, which includes a mandate that bathrooms and other public facilities be open to individuals based on their “gender identification” as well as a ban on conduct which would make “persons of any particular…gender identity” feel “unwelcome.”

While the Commission later slightly revised the guidelines in question, it has continued to defend its contention that churches are not fully exempt, a contention which is currently being challenged in federal court. Hearings for the case began last week.

And now, Iowa churches are no longer the only ones under attack. A new “Gender Identity Guidence” released last Thursday by the Massachusetts Commission Against Discrimination (MCAD) also puts churches squarely in the crosshairs when it comes to implementing new transgender rules.

As MCAD’s guidance notes, all Massachusetts places of public accommodation will be prohibited, as of October 1, from “restrict[ing] a person from services because of that person’s gender identity”:

This means that a movie theater that has restrooms designated as “Men’s Restroom” and “Women’s Restroom” must allow its patrons to use the restroom which is consistent with their gender identity.

Continue Reading

New State Polls Confirm Trump’s Upward Trend

On Friday, we broke down the Electoral College and proposed several different scenarios where Trump could win the presidency. He needs to perform well in 12 key battleground states.

Iowa and Virginia are two of those states. And according to a new pair of Emerson polls, Trump is winning in Iowa and virtually tied in Virginia.

  • Emerson (Iowa, 8/31 – 9/1): Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 8 (Trump +5)
  • Emerson (Virginia, 8/31 – 9/1): Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 11 (Clinton +1)

That being said, we should probably curb our enthusiasm. Trump still has a lot of work to do in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, according to a pair of CBS News/YouGov surveys.

  • CBS News/YouGov (Pennsylvania, 8/30 – 9/2): Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 6 (Clinton +8)
  • CBS News/YouGov (North Carolina, 8/30 – 9/2): Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 4 (Clinton +4)

But assuming Trump can manage a turnaround in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the importance of also winning Virginia, a state many pundits have already written off for the GOP, can’t be overstated. If Trump manages to win these four states, that would put the Electoral College count at 214-208 in favor of Clinton with eight battleground states undecided: Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Missouri (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Florida (29).

In that scenario, Trump would have to be seen as a favorite.

Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project.

 

 

  Continue Reading

Bush: “Not going to back down” on Common Core

Real Clear Politics and the Associated Press reported on former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s most recent string of events and appearances in Iowa this past weekend. One notable appearance was a March 6th fundraiser for Rep. David Young near Des Moines, where a supporter in attendance reportedly told Bush, “I applaud you for your support of Common Core, keep on that topic.” Bush responded by saying: “Raising expectations and having accurate assessments of where kids are is essential for success, and I’m not going to back down on that.” RCP reports that he added: “What I can tell you is the federal government shouldn’t be involved in this.” According to the Associated Press, Bush told reporters after the event: “I know what I believe. I believe in higher standards that develop critical thinking skills.”

You can read the RCP story here and the AP article here. Continue Reading

Huckabee’s Pitch Stays Trained to Social Issues

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with the Family Leader president and CEO Bob Vander Plaats (photo via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0)

In a WSJ story on Mike Huckabee’s refusal to run from the social issues, the very influential Iowan Bob Vander Plaats notes the role Huckabee is already playing: “Mike Huckabee is going to force the others to speak about value issues: life, marriage and religious liberty.”

Maggie Gallagher is the editor of ThePulse2016.com. Continue Reading

Iowa Pastors Against Common Core?

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, also a former GOP presidential candidate, speaks at the grand opening of his Iowa campaign headquarters on June 13, 2007, in Des Moines (photo via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0)

A revealing anecdote in a WaPo story by Robert Costa on the emergent GOP presidential campaign suggests the growing importance Common Core will play 2016.

Iowa’s influential Rev. Michael Demastus of Fort Des Moines Church of Christ is not endorsing anyone yet but he has “been inundated with requests for meetings and invitations to political junkets.” For example, Gov. Bobby Jindal invited him down for a Louisiana prayer rally.  Gov. Mike Huckabee traveled with him and other religious leaders through Europe last fall.

“It was fun,” Demastus said of his swing with Huckabee,”But taking me to Europe doesn’t get you my vote. I still have questions for Mike about Common Core.” Continue Reading