Walker Up in Iowa, While NH a Four Way Toss-Up

2016 is shaping up to be one of the largest primary fields in recent memory, and with several candidates still unannounced, the media has had a hard time searching for a “frontrunner.”   Quinnipiac and Bloomberg provided the latest attempts to pin down voter preferences in Iowa and New Hampshire, with interesting results:

Iowa (Quinnipiac)

  • Scott Walker: 21%
  • Marco Rubio: 13%
  • Rand Paul: 13
  • Ted Cruz: 12%
  • Mike Huckabee: 11%
  • Ben Carson: 7%
  • Jeb Bush: 5%
  • Chris Christie: 3%
  • Rick Perry: 3%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Carly Fiorina: 2%
  • John Kasich: 2%

This poll marks Scott Walker’s second time with a clear lead in our nation’s first presidential contest (although slightly diminished from his ten point lead last month) while the race for second place is a dead heat between Rubio, Paul, Cruz, and Huckabee.  Jeb Bush comes into a 7th place finish of only 5 percent, signaling he may be having problems with the conservative voters in the state.

New Hampshire (Bloomberg)

  • Scott Walker: 12%
  • Rand Paul: 12%
  • Jeb Bush: 11%
  • Marco Rubio: 11%
  • Chris Christie: 7%
  • Ted Cruz: 6%
  • Ben Carson: 5%
  • Mike Huckabee: 4%
  • Carly Fiorina: 3%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Lindsey Graham: 1%

Over the past month, the polling in New Hampshire has been a seesaw between a Walker or Bush lead.  Now, however, the state appears truly up for grabs: Rand Paul and Scott Walker hold a statistically insignificant one point lead, with Bush and Rubio snapping at their heels.  The next tier of candidates (Cruz, Christie, Carson, etc.) are only about 5 points behind the first tier (barely above the margin of error), so let’s label this state a nail biter this point.

Nick Arnold is a researcher for American Principles in Action.