The Pew poll had a very different result, but then it was asking people without any prompts and Trump is clearly the most famous candidate in the race.
But the just released IBD poll, which was among the most accurate of 23 polls in 2012, shows an astonishing Trump slump to just 17 percent among likely GOP voters and Carson surging ahead to 24 percent. Rubio is third with 11 percent.
No one else is in double digits. Fiorina is at 9 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.
Cruz keeps failing to catch fire. Fiorina appears to have faded back again, for reasons unknown, to single digits.
How will Donald Trump react to bad news about his popularity? It appears we may be about to find out.
Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at American Principles in Action.