Who is the Front Runner? Two New Polls

Two recent polls conducted during the same time frame yielded slightly different results with the same underlying theme: there is no clear front runner. The first poll was a CNN/ORC poll of 240 Republicans and 243 Republican-leaning independents. The poll showed Bush and Rubio in a statistical dead heat, with Huckabee and Walker nipping at their heels with 10 percent each. The full results of that poll were as follows:

  • Marco Rubio: 14%
  • Jeb Bush: 13%
  • Mike Huckabee: 10%
  • Scott Walker: 10%
  • Ted Cruz: 8%
  • Rand Paul: 8%
  • Ben Carson: 7%
  • Rick Perry: 5%
  • Chris Christie: 4%
  • George Pataki: 3%
  • Donald Trump: 3%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Carly Fiorina: 1%
  • Lindsey Graham: 1%
  • Bobby Jindal: 1%
  • John Kasich: 1%

Of note is Governor Rick Perry, expected to announce his campaign tomorrow, who received 5 percent of responses, which is the highest his national polling has been in recent memory. Also of note is Governor George Pataki, who has seen numbers hovering between 0 and 1 percent but received 3 percent in this poll.

The second poll was an ABC/Washington Post poll of 1,001 adults nationwide. The poll asked the Republican and Republican-leaning independents who they would vote for if the primary was held that day. In this poll, Walker and Paul each received 11 percent of responses, while Bush and Rubio each received 10 percent. This poll essentially shows a four way tie for the lead, with Huckabee, Carson, and Cruz not far behind. The full results were as follows:

  • Paul: 11%
  • Walker: 11%
  • Bush: 10%
  • Rubio: 10%
  • Huckabee: 9%
  • Carson: 8%
  • Cruz: 8%
  • Christie: 6%
  • Santorum: 4%
  • Trump: 4%
  • Kasich: 3%
  • Fiorina: 2%
  • Perry: 2%
  • Graham: 1%
  • Pataki: 1%
  • Jindal: 0%

While the results of these polls aren’t telling of what shape the primary landscape will take when the Iowa Caucuses are held, it remains very clear that the race is still very much wide open, and no clear front runner has emerged as of yet.

Joshua Pinho works for American Principles in Action.