Donald Trump suffered a setback last week as new national polling revealed that he fell outside the margin of error in his quest to defeat presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and take back the White House for the Republicans. However, according to a report released on Friday by consulting firm Axiom Strategies, Trump leads Clinton in several “battleground counties,” areas that determine how electoral votes are apportioned in a state, polling much more favorably in these swing counties than former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney did against incumbent President Barack Obama in 2012.
In fact, in the seven battleground counties examined in the report, Trump leads Clinton in five, meaning that, if historical precedent holds, he would win those states if the election were held today. The seven counties examined in the report tilted the results in those battleground states for each of the past four election cycles. The accuracy of these results is difficult to ascertain, though, partially because no margin of error is given in the report, and, in counties where Trump leads Clinton, he does so by a margin of five points or fewer, with the exception of Luzerne County in Pennsylvania and Washoe County in Nevada.
Still, if these numbers hold true, they represent positive news for the Trump campaign, which prides itself on uniting not only the Republican Party but also the entire country on a pro-worker, “America first” message. Time will tell whether these predictions pan out, but if current trends hold, it is clear this will be a much closer election than that of 2012.
Elliot Hazzard works for the American Principles Project.