Is Trump Outmaneuvering Clinton on TV?

Photo credit: flash.pro via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

Last month, I wrote about the Associated Press’ interactive tool that allows us to see where both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump — as well as the various super PACs supporting or opposing them — are spending money on TV ads. You can check it out here.

At the time, the situation looked somewhat dire. Week to week, the Trump campaign was getting outspent by the Clinton campaign at least 5 to 1, and sometimes by more. Things have improved dramatically since.

Trump’s October TV Ad Spending:

  • October 2 – October 8: $6,723,974
  • October 9 – October 15: $10,299,758
  • October 16 – October 22: $13,974,642
  • October 23 – October 29: $15,248,878

Clinton’s October TV Ad Spending:

  • October 2 – October 8: $24,615,578
  • October 9 – October 15: $27,178,214
  • October 16 – October 22: $27,184,236
  • October 23 – October 29: $38,631,418

The Clinton campaign still has quite an edge, but the Trump campaign has at least been competitive in October. It’s also interesting to see where both campaigns are spending:

Clinton’s TV Ad Spending By State (October 16 – 22):

  • Florida: $7,021,119
  • Pennsylvania: $3,211,502
  • Ohio: $3,164,488
  • North Carolina: $2,508,899
  • Nevada: $1,812,832
  • New Hampshire: $1,464,935
  • Colorado: $1,117,840
  • Iowa: $1,033,225
  • Arizona: $530,750
  • Georgia: $161,322

Clinton’s TV Ad Spending By State (October 23 – 29):

  • Florida: $10,467,397
  • Ohio: $5,027,531
  • Pennsylvania: $4,746,023
  • North Carolina: $4,059,559
  • Nevada: $2,667,294
  • New Hampshire: $1,675,522
  • Iowa: $1,337,795
  • Arizona: $1,315,618
  • Georgia: $537,814
  • Colorado: $380,067

Trump’s TV Ad Spending By State (October 16 – 22):

  • Florida: $3,480,950
  • Pennsylvania: $1,485,646
  • Ohio: $1,218,202
  • North Carolina: $970,203
  • Colorado: $837,662
  • Nevada: $835,366
  • New Hampshire: $799,516
  • Virginia: $560,140
  • Wisconsin: $471,857
  • Iowa: $334,879

Trump’s TV Ad Spending By State (October 23 – 29):

  • Florida: $4,226,822
  • Pennsylvania: $1,679,017
  • Ohio: $1,401,368
  • North Carolina: $1,268,145
  • Nevada: $936,952
  • Colorado: $821,342
  • New Hampshire: $533,966
  • Wisconsin: $520,879
  • Iowa: $411,696
  • Virginia: $403,090

Trump’s TV ad spending is much more concentrated than Clinton’s. Continue Reading

New Poll: Is Trump Likely to Win North Carolina?

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

The new Elon University poll may have bad news for Hillary Clinton: With just a week to go, she and Donald Trump are in a virtual dead heat, 42 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent of North Carolina voters still undecided. But when pressed, the undecideds favor Trump 27 percent to 18 percent.

Meanwhile despite massive spending against him by the LGBT lobby, among others, including a series of video ads from Lennie and Pearl, the new poll shows Gov. Pat McCrory and Roy Cooper are dead even at 44 percent apiece. Cooper and McCrory are both holding their own party members (89 percent and 91 percent, respectively) while independents are tilting to McCrory, 54 percent to 46 percent.

Sen. Richard Burr has pulled out a  slim lead over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross, 43.5 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics average has Clinton up by 2 points, Cooper up by 3 points, and Burr up by 0.8 points.

It’s coming down to the wire on this one.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading

Did We Publish an Inaccurate Headline? McMullin Fans Think So…

On Thursday, I wrote a piece titled, “Evan McMullin Admits His Campaign Strategy Is to Elect Hillary Clinton.” Dozens of McMullin supporters commented on the story and tweeted at me to tell me the headline was misleading.

Okay. So let’s rehash this. Here is what McMullin said, in full:

Via RealClearPolitics:

QUESTION: How many states are you going to be on the ballot would you say?

EVAN MCMULLIN: Right now we’re either on the ballot or registered as a write-in in 34 states. By the time we get to November 8th it will be 40 to 45. And that’s plenty for our strategy which is not a conventional strategy. We’re not trying to win 270 votes. Of course that would be great but it’s just not going to happen, this is a three-month presidential campaign.

So, what we’re trying to do is earn enough electoral votes to block Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump if the race between both of them is so close that we are able to do that by winning 1 or 2 states. So, that’s the idea. But if not that then we will be happy to have prevented someone who I believe is a true authoritarian from taking power in the United States and that’s Donald Trump. [Emphasis added]

In his own words, Evan McMullin admits to having a two-pronged strategy. The supposed primary objective is to block both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump from winning 270 electoral votes by winning “one or two” states. Continue Reading

Happy Halloween! Trump, Clinton, and an Endless Series of Hobgoblins

Photo credit: Mike Mozart via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

This election cycle has provided much demonizing of the major party candidates. Much anxiety stalks the land, or at least the mainstream media. Some of this anxiety is fixating on fragility of the perceived legitimacy of the victor in the presidential election. Bosh.

The Declaration of Independence succinctly and perfectly states: “Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed….” And electoral victory, in the electoral college, remains the least imperfect mechanism yet tried to discern the consent of the governed. (Electoral victory plus the division of power between the Congress and the presidency is pretty darned good.)

Our current perceived predicament is neither new nor news. H.L. Mencken, the proto-libertarian “Sage of Baltimore,” summed it up to perfection 98 years ago in In Defense of Women:

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.

The fundamental things don’t change as time goes by.

Every election since the dawn of the Republic has been, in some respect, “rigged.” As Jill Lepore wrote in The New Yorker last summer, How To Steal An Election:

[…]

Read the full article at Forbes.com.

Ralph Benko, internationally published weekly columnist, co-author of The 21st Century Gold Standard, lead co-editor of the Gerald Malsbary translation from Latin to English of Copernicus’s Essay on Money, is American Principles Project’s Senior Advisor, Economics. Continue Reading

After Obamacare Bombshell, Polls Show Trump Gaining

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

In my post yesterday, I speculated that news of skyrocketing insurance premiums under Obamacare might spur a further surge in the polls for Donald Trump. The newest polling numbers being released now seem to confirm this.

On RealClearPolitics, the six national polls which were taken either during or after October 25th (the day after the Obamacare news broke) show Trump’s gap to Hillary Clinton down to 3.5 points in a two-way race. When expanded to a four-way race, seven polls show Clinton’s lead even smaller — only 3.1 points.

When the media focus is on Clinton and the Democrats, Trump is the clear beneficiary. The only question now is whether Trump can avoid drawing negative attention back to himself in the next 11 days.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Continue Reading

Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

“It’s over. Trump can’t win.” That’s the narrative the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media have relentlessly promoted over the past several days. The problem with that narrative is that it is a bald-faced lie. This election is nowhere near over. Not even close!

Let’s take a look at the electoral map. Remember, to become the next president of the United States, Trump needs to win 270 electoral votes. Conversely, he needs to hold Hillary Clinton to 269 electoral votes because, with a Republican House of Representatives, a 269-269 tie is likely to also result in a Trump presidency.

Trump’s baseline amount of electoral votes is 158. Let’s assume Clinton’s baseline is 239 — we will generously cede her Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), and three of Maine’s four electoral votes.

If this is a fixed reality, Trump must win the following states to get to 265 electoral votes (ordered from easiest to win to most difficult):

Utah

Utah just became a battleground state as Independent candidate Evan McMullin has been surging recently. It truly is a three-way race at the present. The most recent poll, conducted on October 23 and 24 by Heat Street/Rasmussen, gave Trump a narrow 32-29-28 lead over McMullin and Clinton, respectively.

Georgia

[…]

Read the full article at Townhall.com.

Frank Cannon is the president of American Principles Project. Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director at American Principles Project. Continue Reading

WATCH: The Three Best Moments from Trump’s EWTN Interview

Last night, EWTN aired an extended interview with Donald Trump, his first with the Catholic television network. Trump and host Raymond Arroyo covered a number of important topics, including life, religious liberty, Obamacare, and the importance of the 2016 election.

You can watch the full interview below:

Here were Trump’s top three moments from the interview:

1.) “The person who was pro-choice is now pro-life…and that had a big effect on me.”

Trump discussed his change in view on the pro-life question, describing an event with a couple close to him, including the baby they eventually had, and the effect that experience had on him:

ARROYO: You’re very concerned about the late-term abortions. What was the moment that changed your thinking, your heart, on this?

TRUMP: Well, there are a number of moments, but one was a couple that I know very, very well — and you had a strong pro-life [person] and you had a strong pro-choice [person], and they argued over [the pregnancy]. … The mother was pregnant. They argued over the child. One, I won’t get into specifics.

But one wanted to abort. And the other said, “We can’t do that. We’re not going to do that.” Anyway, they had the baby. It was a long time ago. And the baby is such a magnificent person, who I know, a magnificent person. And the person that was actually pro-choice is now pro-life because of it, and it had a big effect on me. But I’ve seen other examples similar to that; but I’ve seen other examples, so …

ARROYO: So, it was a personal change for you?

Continue Reading

Evan McMullin Admits His Campaign Strategy Is to Elect Hillary Clinton

Evan McMullin (photo via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0)

I have a lot of friends voting for Evan McMullin, the independent presidential candidate.

McMullin is a hero to what’s left of the #NeverTrump movement. He is supposedly a conservative, although many conservatives are skeptical. Maybe he’s a fine person. I don’t even care to contest that. I don’t know him.

But McMullin is not a viable candidate for president. He is a spoiler candidate, and he is fully aware of this! That’s why his campaign strategy, as he revealed in a recent interview, is not to win 270 electoral votes, but instead, to swing the election to Hillary Clinton.

Via RealClearPolitics:

QUESTION: How many states are you going to be on the ballot would you say?

EVAN MCMULLIN: Right now we’re either on the ballot or registered as a write-in in 34 states. By the time we get to November 8th it will be 40 to 45. And that’s plenty for our strategy which is not a conventional strategy. We’re not trying to win 270 votes. Of course that would be great but it’s just not going to happen, this is a three-month presidential campaign.

So, what we’re trying to do is earn enough electoral votes to block Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump if the race between both of them is so close that we are able to do that by winning 1 or 2 states. So, that’s the idea. But if not that then we will be happy to have prevented someone who I believe is a true authoritarian from taking power in the United States and that’s Donald Trump.

Continue Reading

Biased or Not, New Polls Show a Tightening Race

From left: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Amidst all the controversy over whether recent polling of the presidential race has been under-representing Republican voters or over-representing other groups (such as black voters), a more important story is being lost in the noise.

There has been a significant amount of national polling released in the past week – enough to give us a clear idea of where the race currently stands. And, crazy though this may sound, the race has grown much closer than many in the media might want to admit.

The RealClearPolitics polling average from the past week shows Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton nationally by 5.4 points in a two-way race. This same gap holds when expanded to a four-way race. And in individual swing-state polling, the race is even tighter:

  • Florida: 5 polls taken since 10/20 show Trump behind by just 1.6 points.
  • Nevada: RCP’s average shows Trump behind by 3.6 points, with 3 polls taken since 10/20.
  • New Hampshire: The most recent poll taken in New Hampshire shows Trump down by 4 points.
  • North Carolina: RCP’s average shows Trump down by 2 points, with 4 polls taken since 10/20.
  • Ohio: The only poll taken since 10/20 shows Trump leading by 4 points.

During the past week, the prevailing narrative in the media has been that the 2016 race is over, Trump’s campaign is imploding, and the Clinton transition team is taking shape. However, given the above results, it is clearly still too premature to be reporting a Democratic victory, and certainly not a decisive one. Continue Reading

The Five Battleground States Trump Needs to Win

The media has grown obsessed with driving the narrative that Hillary Clinton has this election in the bag. Supposedly, according to our elite overlords, this election is so over. You might as well stay home!

But when you analyze the data, placed in context, especially on a state-by-state basis, this narrative reveals itself to be ridiculous. The presidential race is still very close. It’s not over yet.

Some pollsters say Clinton is up double digits. Others say the race is a virtual tie. The stark differences can be chalked up to differing turnout models: Will Democrats turn out for Hillary Clinton like they did for Barack Obama, as many of these models that show Clinton up double digits presume? Or will Donald Trump add new voters to Romney’s insufficient 2012 coalition and surprise with a victory? It’s hard to tell.

But regardless, national polling numbers matter little. The electoral college determines the next president. So for that, we look to state polling numbers.

And state polling has been very close.

Remember, for Trump to become president, he just needs to deny Hillary Clinton a victory and get to an electoral tie, 269-269, at which point the House of Representatives would pick a president, and presumably, the Republican House would pick Trump.

Here are the top five battleground states Trump needs to win to make that happen:

5.) Florida and Ohio

Okay, maybe I meant top six. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins without winning Florida (29 electoral votes) and Ohio (18). Continue Reading