Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? We Make Our Electoral College Predictions

Happy Election Day! With voting set to conclude this evening — make sure to vote if you haven’t already! — it’s time to reveal our predictions for who will be sworn in next January as the 45th President of the United States.

Will it be Donald Trump? Or will it be Hillary Clinton? Here’s what our writers think:

Steve Wagner — Trump wins 274-264

A surprise upset in Wisconsin, plus key wins in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, propel Donald Trump to a 10-point electoral college victory.

Shane Vander Hart — Clinton wins 307-231

Hillary Clinton’s advantage in early voting, plus an uptick in Hispanic votes, is enough to push her over the top in Florida and Nevada while preventing Trump upsets in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Terry Schilling — Trump wins 278-260

Donald Trump ekes out a close win in Florida while using high turnout from working-class whites to pull off upsets in Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Maine’s 2nd congressional district (ME-2) — enough for an 18-point electoral college victory.

Matt Bowman — Trump wins 270-268

Swing state wins in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and ME-2 give Donald Trump just enough electoral votes to eke out a 2-point victory over Clinton.

William Upton — Clinton wins 283-255

Victories by Donald Trump in Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire are not enough to breach Hillary Clinton’s firewall, as she wins North Carolina and the White House.

Mary Powers — Trump wins 272-266

Despite losing Nevada, Donald Trump shocks the political world by winning Virginia and uses victories in Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire to complete his 6-point electoral college triumph over Clinton. Continue Reading

Trusting Hillary Is the Best Reason to Vote for Trump

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

Some have made the argument that Donald Trump and Mike Pence won’t move life, marriage, and religious liberty issues beyond the status quo.

Well, I think we can be certain that Hillary Clinton will change the status quo. For the past 40 years, the status quo has been that the federal government does not pay for elective abortions. Clinton, however, is committed to repeal of the Hyde Amendment and other government limitations on abortion funding. She is also opposed to the ban on partial-birth abortion, or any limitation on abortion at any stage of pregnancy, for any reason.

For many years, the status quo has been conscience protections for medical personnel and medical students who object to participating in the performance of abortions. Religious hospitals have also been protected from having to perform elective abortions in their facilities. Clinton, however, believes that religions are going to have to change to accommodate things she deems to be rights, such as abortion. People will no longer be allowed to assert religious beliefs to justify ‘discrimination’ — despite the fact that Bill Clinton signed the Religious Freedom Restoration Act into law to protect the exercise of such beliefs.

For thousands of years, marriage was recognized as the union of one man and one woman — and Hillary Clinton expressed support for that position. However, if a photographer or wedding planner declines to be actively involved in a same-sex wedding ceremony due to his or her religious beliefs, does anyone believe that Clinton will support the exercise of such religious beliefs? Continue Reading

I Did It. I Voted for Donald Trump. Here’s Why.

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Tomorrow is Election Day. Tomorrow, we vote.

I want to talk a little bit about why I am voting for Donald Trump.

Early on in the GOP primary, I did not support Trump. My feelings on Trump were mixed. I thought his debate performances were entertaining. I enjoyed watching him destroy squishy establishment Republicans like Jeb Bush and John Kasich. Unlike many of my peers, I liked his brash demeanor, and I was captivated by his willingness to fight the liberal media.

But I had trust issues, many of which I wrote about here at The Pulse 2016. Was Donald Trump a true conservative? Was he really pro-life? Could he be trusted?

Abortion was my biggest concern with Trump from the very beginning. But Trump, wisely, made committing to the pro-life movement a priority. In his policy platform, Trump went further than any other GOP nominee in history, promising to…

  • …apply a litmus test to judicial appointees and nominate “pro-life” Supreme Court justices.
  • …sign the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, a 20-week ban on abortion.
  • …defund Planned Parenthood.
  • …protect the Hyde Amendment and fight against any government effort to commit taxpayer funds to abortion.

It was because of these commitments that I declared I would vote for Donald Trump in an op-ed in The Daily Caller in May:

And as President, [Trump] will promote a culture of life. He will make saving lives a priority.

Does he say stupid things? Absolutely. Trump has evoked every emotion within me.

Continue Reading

WATCH: Pro-Life Group Releases New Ad Supporting Trump

As we enter the final hours of the 2016 campaign, the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List is making one last effort to nudge swing state voters toward Donald Trump.

In a new online ad released on Friday and currently running in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, SBA List highlights Trump’s criticism of Hillary Clinton’s extreme position on late-term abortion in the final presidential debate last month:

You can watch the full exchange between Trump and Clinton at that debate here.

Paul Dupont is the managing editor for ThePulse2016.com. Continue Reading

Donald Trump Sets New Pro-Life Standard

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

The only thing a candidate can ever offer is words. He can’t act on what he will do because he’s speaking about the future, not the present.

Yet Donald Trump has actually raised the bar for what pro-lifers can expect from Republican candidates, despite his troubling personal history on the issue.

This sounds counter-intuitive: even if pro-lifers support Trump, shouldn’t they feel they’re taking a step backwards? Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry urged this in The Week, saying “If pro-lifers vote for Trump, the Republican Party will never again give them what they want.”

But Gobry and others are ignoring Trump’s positions — and those positions actually improve the pro-life movement’s bargaining position in the Republican Party.

Take the ever-important Supreme Court. Past Republican nominees have actually refused to say they would appoint pro-life justices. Unlike Democrats, the GOP establishment has considered “litmus tests” taboo.

Trump has blasted through this judicial glass ceiling. He has not only specified his justices will be pro-life; he has named a list of them from whom he will pick. He even told Hugh Hewitt he would be fine with Republican senators holding up or filibustering his nominee if he veers from the list — because he won’t.

And Trump’s list is stellar. It includes people like Judge William Pryor who, during his Senate testimony to become an appeals court judge, explicitly and courageously said he opposes Roe v. Wade (instead of what most nominees say, which is usually something vague about following the law). Continue Reading

High Stakes for 2016: Judy Shelton for Fed Chair to Make America Great Again

The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, DC (photo credit: Dan Smith, CC BY-SA 2.5)

In The Daily Caller, freelance writer Johannes Schmidt writes “On November 8th I’m Voting For Our Next Fed Chair.” It’s an especially astute column.

While many commentators correctly have focused on the effect of the election outcome on appointments to the Supreme Court, too few have focused on the next president’s appointments to the Fed. This also is of capital importance. Schmidt writes:

The policies implemented by the Fed are especially important (albeit often insidious) because money is our society’s most basic medium of exchange. The manipulation of its value affects every day citizens both in the short and long terms. Decisions taken by central banks–be it to toy with negative interest rates, engage in endless rounds of quantitative easing, or pay banks to keep loanable funds in sterile depository accounts—inevitably impact the value of the dollars we use to buy groceries today or pay off our mortgages over the next couple of decades.

Perhaps more daunting still is the fact that a lack of rules or central bank predictability makes international trade and cooperation difficult, at best. Without central bank coherency, monetary disorder will continue “to undermine the logic of competitive markets and the notion of free trade,” as was previously noted in The Hill.

But do our candidates understand the gravity of their 2018 Fed chief appointment? Are they satisfied with our current discretionary regime and adherence to the failed dual-mandate, or do they think that a return to a rules-based monetary system is critical?

Continue Reading

For Trump’s Path to 270, It All Comes Down to One State

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Last Friday, The Pulse 2016’s Frank Cannon and Jon Schweppe laid out the most likely path to 270 electoral votes for Donald Trump, arguing that if he were to win all the closest toss-up states at that time, he would need only one more state to go his way in order to overtake Hillary Clinton.

After a week, it looks like the final piece of the puzzle for Trump may be New Hampshire. New polling in the Granite State has been very favorable to Republicans, and the RealClearPolitics average now has Trump leading by 1.5 points with just four days to go.

However, a Trump victory is still far from certain, given how close the race remains in several battleground states. The RCP polling averages in four states (and Maine’s 2nd congressional district) are currently within two points:

In order for Trump to reach 270, he must win each of these states and ME-2 — or else he must win another one or more states where Clinton’s polling lead is more robust. It’s a tall order, though far from an impossibility.

However, of the above states, one holds a place of particular importance if Trump hopes to pull out a win on Tuesday: Florida. And it’s not just because he is slightly behind in the polling right now. Continue Reading

Six Days Left: Trump Has a Lot of Outs

When poker players are drawing to a straight or a flush, they will often talk about having a certain number of “outs” — i.e. how many cards are left in the deck that can make their hand, allowing them to win the pot.

Donald Trump doesn’t have a winning hand yet, but he has a lot of outs.

Last Thursday night, we wrote at Townhall about Donald Trump’s easier-than-you-think path to 270 electoral votes. We explained that Trump could get to 265 by winning Utah, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. At the time, this still seemed like a somewhat daunting task, albeit one that was within the realm of possibility.

But now? Well, Trump’s lot has improved significantly in these states since Thursday night, as Hillary Clinton’s lead appears to be fading fast:

Utah

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +5.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +6.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +0.2%

Georgia

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +2.8%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +5.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.9%

Iowa

Ohio

  • RCP Average (10/27): Trump +1.1%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.3%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.2%

Arizona

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.5%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +3.0%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +4.5%

Florida

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +1.6%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +0.7%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +2.1%

Nevada

  • RCP Average (10/27): Clinton +2.0%
  • RCP Average (11/2): Trump +1.6%
  • 6 Day Swing: Trump +3.6%

North Carolina

Obviously, these states are still too close to call, but Trump now is tied or enjoys small leads in all eight of them. Continue Reading

Good Monetary Policy Is Too Serious a Matter to Be Left to the Fed

Photo credit: Kurtis Garbutt via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

US News and World Report‘s Andrew Soergel reports that “With White House in Sight, Trump, Clinton Plan Fed Renovations: No matter who wins the election, times are likely changing at America’s central bank.”

“The Fed” really is a synecdoche for monetary policy. Monetary policy used to be, off and on, a significant factor of presidential campaigns. In this election cycle, the monetary policy issue has only arisen occasionally and has not become a major issue of contention.

Pity. It really deserves to be front and center.

What is widely regarded as the most striking speech in presidential campaign history was William Jennings Bryan’s 1896 convention speech concluding:

If they dare to come out in the open field and defend the gold standard as a good thing, we shall fight them to the uttermost, having behind us the producing masses of the nation and the world. Having behind us the commercial interests and the laboring interests and all the toiling masses, we shall answer their demands for a gold standard by saying to them, you shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.

Read the full speech here. It electrified the Democratic convention and propelled the young Bryan to the 1896 Democratic presidential nomination and two more. He lost all three times — including in 1896.

As economic historian Brian Domitrovic observed, at Forbes.com:

In 1896, Bryan opposed the gold standard because it had coincided with the 1-2% per year deflation that the country had been experiencing since the 1870s.

Continue Reading

Poll: Trump Takes a Six-Point Lead in N.C., McCrory within One Point

Donald Trump (photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

North Carolina offers a great glimpse into trends in the battleground states this election. A WRAL poll by SurveyUSA taken after the FBI scandal broke shows Donald Trump has suddenly jumped to a six-point lead. Almost a third of North Carolina voters chose “trustworthiness” as their most important quality in picking a president, and they are breaking for Trump by 83 percent. He’s also cut the gender gap with women from 13 points down to 7 points while upping his gender gap among men from 9 points to an astonishing 23 points.

But the FBI scandal — blown up YUGE by her decision to attack the FBI for doing its job — is not Hillary Clinton’s only problem, although the media is focusing on that story. On health care, an issue that in early October favored Clinton by 39 points, Trump has cut her lead down to 13 points. The huge leap in Obamacare premiums is clearly hurting voters in their pocketbook — and, by extension, Clinton’s election numbers.

Meanwhile, the same poll shows Gov. Pat McCrory virtually neck and neck with Roy Cooper, 47 percent to 48 percent.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe. Continue Reading